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Re-examining bold AFC South QB predictions: Can C.J. Stroud truly be outshined by division rivals with promising young talent?

Back in early January, ESPN Houston analyst Lance Zierlein made the claim that there was a chance that Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud could be the "worst quarterback in the division" in 2026. 

Zerlein explained on the Youtube show, "it kind of speaks to the fact that there are decent quarterbacks in the division. Daniel Jones was pretty good this year, Cam Ward really came on at the end of the year, and then Trevor Lawrence had a great year" .

He continued by explaining, "the division, I don't think is going to be a slappy division next year when everyone's healthy".

At the time, social media was abuzz with push-back on the sentiment, seeing as though Stroud had been the most prolific signal caller in the AFC South since his debut in 2023. However, Zerlein was speaking from a place of understanding of how 2025 panned out contextually for all four passers. 

graphic provided via Stathead football/sports-reference.comgraphic provided via Stathead football/sports-reference.com

Recounting the AFC South

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones had a phenomenal start in head coach Shane Steichen's offensive system (started 7-1), but a broken fibula and torn achilles tendon ruined the back-half of his otherwise stellar season. 

The injuries notwithstanding, Jones finished as the division lead in highest completion % at 68%, the most yards per game at 238.5 and the best passer rating averaged at 100.2. 

Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward was part of a 3-14 campaign in his first year as a professional, but it wasn't entirely his fault. The Titans finished as one of the five worst teams in the NFL for a reason. 

In spite of that, Ward still threw for over 3,100 yards, 15 touchdowns and the lowest interception total in the division with seven. 

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence had the best season overall from the division. He finished with over 4,000 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 359 rushing yards and nine rushing scores. He did it through the air and on the ground, leading his team to the first 13 or more win season since 1999 (14-2, lost in the Conference championship game to the Titans). 

Stroud himself did not have the banner year that many, including himself, were looking forward to in 2025. Yet, he finished with over 3,000 yards passing, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions (improvement from last season's 12) and one rushing score. His contributions helped Houston double digit wins for three years straight, the first time in franchise history  that's happened. 

He also missed three games due to a concussion, which would be the second time since 2023 that he's done so in Houston. The last time, he missed two games (Titans, Cleveland Browns). 

Then, Stroud and Lawrence both made the AFC postseason, with Stroud getting the upper hand by way of advancing one round farther than his counterpart. However, Stroud having arguably the worst two-game playoff game stretch in NFL history certainly evens out the Wildcard loss by Lawrence. 

Accomplishments Not Enough?

As it stands, Stroud will be the most accomplished quarterback in the division to start 2026 (three-straight playoff trips, 3-0 record in Wildcard games). However, he will have the most to prove and the smallest amount of margin for error to do so

With all of the AFC South looking for improvement, Stroud and co. can't afford to let last season linger into a new campaign.

Jones is going to recover, Ward will be in his second year and Lawrence seems to have finally been unlocked by new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen. 

Will Stroud regain his form and solidify himself as QB1 in the AFC South? Let us know in the comments section below and by mentioning us on X via @Texans_RTB and @Texans.Roundtable on TikTok!