With just weeks remaining in the Premier League season, the race for Europe is tighter than ever and Bournemouth are right in the mix. Using reverse fixture results to simulate the run-in, a bold projection suggests the Cherries could defy expectations and mount a serious push...
After Brentford’s 2–1 loss at Manchester United’s Old Trafford on Monday night, most teams now have four games remaining - the exceptions being Crystal Palace and Manchester City, who each have five still to play - and both of whom face the Cherries.
The race for Europe feels as open and unpredictable as ever, and for the first time at this stage, AFC Bournemouth fans genuinely believe it could be within reach.
But what if we projected the run-in based purely on reverse fixtures? For example: Cherries still have to face Manchester City, and given Iraola's side lost 3-1 at the Etihad - we'll assume it is the same result again.
We fed the scenario into a “supercomputer” - well, Grok - to simulate the final table… and the results are eye-opening.
The Final League Table
The headlines:
Arsenal would win the league, after gaining maximum points from their final four games.
Manchester City would fall just short in the title race, with their final fixture against Aston Villa proving to be the costly result, given the reverse fixture saw the Villains earn all three points.
The Champions League spots would be secured by the aforementioned two, plus Manchester United, Aston Villa and Liverpool.
The Europa League spots would be 6th and 7th, occupied by Chelsea and Brighton respectively.
AFC Bournemouth would earn European football for the first time in their history, finishing 8th, in a UEFA Conference League place.
Any stipulations?
It should be noted that eight place will only not be a European spot if Chelsea were to win the FA Cup as well as finish outside of the European places - which they don't on this projection. However, the current actual league table is less encouraging - although, you'd probably have to favour City for the probability of winning the cup.
To quell any concerns, if Nottingham Forest were to win the Europa Cup they would be in the Champions League, and if Crystal Palace win the UEFA Conference League they would then be in the Europa Cup - both of which would be additional European spots, and would not replace any league spots.
Therefore, there is a genuine chance of 10 English sides being in Europe, albeit this would rely in Nottingham Forest winning the Europa, which would be a difficult ask.
Cherries in Europe...
For supporters of AFC Bournemouth, there’s a growing sense that something special could be building. When owner Bill Foley spoke of a five-year plan to reach Europe, it felt ambitious - perhaps even aspirational.
But if this projection were to become reality, it would represent a remarkable acceleration of that vision, capping one of the most impressive and rapid rises in the club’s history, and turning belief into something very real on the south coast.