Everton: Hull City's Data Analysed, Hayden Hackney The Key

Premier League football is finally returning as Everton travel to newly promoted Hull City.

The Toffees went into the international break unbeaten, and they’ll be hoping to continue that form as they prepare for their first fixture in October.

The opening five games were somewhat favourable to Everton, but they certainly get a little tougher for the rest of October. Even Hull, who might have looked like an easy game on paper during pre-season, are a bit of a surprise package so far this campaign. 

Hull’s first defeat of the season came last time out, losing away at Newcastle before the international break. 

Everton are now set to face their first newly promoted side away from home, hoping to come away with a result to continue their impressive form. 

Although Hull may appear to be flying high in the top half, the data suggests they’ve been a little fortunate.

Looking at Hull’s expected goals so far this season in the Premier League, it’s somewhat in line with the number of goals they’ve produced. They’ve created 5.3 xG and found the back of the net on six occasions, so a slight overperformance. 

Expected goals against is where they’ve perhaps been fortunate. Hull have conceded just four times in the Premier League this season, but they’ve conceded 7.4 xG.

The majority of that has come from open play too, so they are certainly giving up plenty of chances. In fact, only 0.8 xG has been conceded from set-pieces this season, with only Ipswich and Liverpool’s being lower.

When it comes to expected points, Hull’s is 5.2, which would put them in sixth place, rather than the eight points in eighth place where they actually sit in the Premier League. 

It suggests a slight overperformance from Hull in terms of results compared to performances, and it’s unlikely to be sustainable for too much longer. One major caveat to that is, this was the case for Hull for the majority of last season, and they defied all odds by getting promoted. 

Hull’s style of play is very obvious. Sit back, absorb pressure, and try to hit teams in transition. They play with wing-backs who look to get forward to try to create, particularly Ryan Giles on the left-hand side. 

Hull have averaged just 32.3% possession so far this season, which of course ranks them bottom of the Premier League. Everton are only slightly above in 17th, but have significantly more possession with 43.6%. 

Hull like to get the ball out wide and try to get crosses into the box. In the Premier League, they rank fifth for crosses attempted, which is incredibly high given they’ve only averaged 32.3% possession. The four sides that rank above them for crosses attempted are all in the top six for possession, which can give you an idea of how often Hull are crossing when they do get the rare opportunity to have the ball. 

That’s also backed up by the number of passes in the final third. Hull have attempted just 266 passes in the final third (19th in the PL), which is 91.80 per game. To put that into perspective, Manchester United are top with 191.6 per game.

Hull are far from the most intense pressers out of possession, but they press well and with intent. Hull create 6.20 high turnovers per game, while also averaging 2 shot-ending high turnovers per game. They will sit back and allow the opposition to play, but they’ll press at the right moment. 

Hull have managed just 22 passing sequences that involve more than 10 passes this season, ranking them bottom. 

Overall, it’s a side who are looking to play ugly to try to get results in the Premier League. It’s completely understandable and likely the most effective way for Hull to try to stay up, but we’ll have to see how long they can keep it up for. 

It’s going to be a really interesting game. Everton are likely going to be the side who are in control. Hull are more than happy to surrender control, and although Everton usually are, when you’ve got players such as James Garner, Jack Grealish, and Jarrad Branthwaite in your team, you’re likely to take control naturally in a game like this. 

Everton will have to remain incredibly patient, and an early goal would be absolutely perfect. Forcing Hull to come onto us will open up gaps to play, and that’s only going to happen if we score early on.

It’s important to come out of the blocks absolutely firing.

In a game like this, having someone like Hayden Hackney in a deeper role, maybe instead of Harrison Armstrong, would help us in terms of progressing the ball and creativity. 

Everton should have enough control in the game where they can sacrifice central space and allow Hackney to get forward and help in the final third. 

Third-man runners from deep will be crucial, rather than seeing Everton constantly recycling the ball from left to right to try to find gaps.

Everton certainly have enough to beat Hull, but they’ve been difficult to beat this season.