WNBA Playoff Picture: Minnesota Can Clinch Top Seed as 5 Teams Chase Home Court

The Minnesota Lynx could clinch the WNBA's No. 1 overall seed as soon as Friday, Sept. 18. Minnesota hosts the New York Liberty that night at Target Center, and the Golden State Valkyries host the Portland Fire at Chase Center.

Any combination of two Lynx wins and Valkyries losses settles it. Minnesota is 31-9, Golden State is 29-11, and the Lynx took three of four from the Valkyries this season, so a tie at the top goes to Minnesota.

Below first place, nothing is decided. Five teams are chasing the four seeds that come with a home first-round series, and the regular season ends Thursday, Sept. 24.

Minnesota has the hardest closing schedule of the three teams at the top. After New York, the Lynx visit the Connecticut Sun, who are 10-30. Then comes a pair of games against the Indiana Fever in three days, Sept. 22 in Indianapolis and Sept. 24 at home.

The Lynx and Liberty have split two meetings. Minnesota won the second one by five points.

Golden State beat Minnesota the week before the break. On Aug. 30, the Atlanta Dream won 89-81 in Atlanta. Those were consecutive losses for the Lynx for only the second time this season. The first came in early July, against New York on July 3 and Connecticut on July 6.

Courtney Williams was back for the Atlanta game after missing the first game of her career the week before. Only the Liberty sent more players to the World Cup than Minnesota's six. Napheesa Collier was one of them, playing for Team USA.

All four of the Valkyries' remaining opponents have been eliminated. Golden State hosts Portland on Friday and the Seattle Storm on Saturday. It then plays at Portland on Sept. 22 and at the Los Angeles Sparks on Sept. 24.

Those three teams are a combined 39-81. Golden State is 7-0 against them.

Valkyries coach Natalie Nakase's team clinched its playoff spot Aug. 17 with a win over the Dallas Wings. Golden State is in its second season and has reached the playoffs both years. The Valkyries carry a four-game winning streak into the final week.

Two games behind them, the Las Vegas Aces are 27-13. Las Vegas won all three meetings with Golden State, so the Aces hold that tiebreaker if the teams finish even.

The Aces' closing opponents are also all out of the race. Las Vegas plays Seattle on Sept. 17 and Sept. 20, hosts Los Angeles, and finishes at the Phoenix Mercury.

NaLyssa Smith will not be with them. The forward went down with a non-contact left leg injury in the third quarter of an 88-78 win over the Toronto Tempo on Aug. 23 in Vancouver. Four days later, the Aces ruled her out for the season.

She had started every game for Aces coach Becky Hammon. Smith averaged 11.7 points and 6.4 rebounds and was leading the league at 63.8% from the field. She was 4-for-4 with 8 points and 8 rebounds in 19 minutes when she left the Toronto game.

"You never want to see that happen to anyone," A'ja Wilson said. "(Smith) is a soldier."

Wilson averaged 26.0 points before the break. She withdrew from Team USA before the World Cup and has not played since the Aces beat Toronto again on Aug. 28.

Indiana owns the tiebreaker over Las Vegas after winning the season series.

The Dream and Fever are both 26-14, a game behind the Aces. If Las Vegas holds third, they are playing for one home series.

Atlanta has the edge for now. The teams split their season series, and the Dream have the better record against teams at .500 or better.

The Dream play the Sun and the Chicago Sky before two games at New York. Indiana opens at Toronto, hosts the Washington Mystics, and finishes with Minnesota twice.

No team scores more than Indiana, which averages 97 points per game. Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell combined for 68 in the Fever's last game before the break, a 111-91 win over Connecticut. In August, Mitchell set a WNBA record with her 21st straight 20-point game.

New York is two games back at 24-16 and plays Atlanta twice at Barclays Center.

The first round begins Sunday, Sept. 27.