The Tigers are still in the playoff race, but the trade deadline math favors selling

The Detroit Tigers have played their way back into the American League playoff picture after spending much of the first two months looking like one of baseball’s biggest disappointments.

That does not mean they should allow their recent turnaround to dictate how they approach the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

After Sunday’s 5-4 loss to the Kansas City Royals, the Tigers sit at 50-56. They are 3½ games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the final AL wild-card position and six games behind the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central. More concerning than the number of games is the number of teams Detroit must pass.

Cleveland currently occupies the final wild-card spot. Minnesota, Seattle, Houston and Baltimore are also ahead of Detroit. The Tigers are not chasing one struggling team. They need to outperform five teams over the final two months of the season.

The Tigers are still alive, and their recent play has made this a more complicated decision than it appeared to be at the end of May. However, being within striking distance of a playoff spot should not automatically make them buyers or convince the front office to hold every player.

This is where Scott Harris and the Tigers have to separate what is possible from what is probable and how they should address what this team will need, long-term.

Harris should be more visible and willing to address the direction of the organization. Fans have legitimate questions about the roster he constructed, the team’s slow start and what the long-term plan actually looks like. His absence from the public conversation has only created more frustration and allowed others to fill in the blanks.

At the same time, there may not be a deadline decision that satisfies everyone.

If the Tigers sell, some fans will see it as waving the white flag on the season and the “Fire Scott Harris” chants will return. If they hold or buy and still miss the playoffs, the criticism will be that Harris wasted an opportunity to improve the organization while several players still had trade value.

It is a difficult position, but that is also part of the job. Harris cannot allow the fear of public backlash to determine the direction of the franchise. The Tigers have to make the decision that gives them the best chance to build a sustainable winner, even if it is unpopular in the moment.

Detroit has 56 games remaining.

An 82-win finish would require the Tigers to go 32-24, a .571 winning percentage. Getting to 84 wins would require a 34-22 finish, while 85 wins would require them to go 35-21.

An 86-win season, which would place Detroit closer to a safer wild-card target, would require a 36-20 finish. That is a .643 winning percentage over the final 56 games.

The Tigers have already demonstrated that they can play at that level for an extended stretch. They were 22-38 at the end of May before improving to 50-56, giving them a 28-18 record since June 1. That is a .609 winning percentage.

Maintaining that pace would leave Detroit at approximately 84-78.

That might be enough to reach the postseason. It might also leave the Tigers a game or two short, depending on how the rest of the AL develops.

FanGraphs currently gives Detroit a 32.6% chance of making the postseason. That is substantial enough that selling will not be an easy decision, but it still means there is roughly a two-in-three chance that the Tigers miss the playoffs.

The standings also create a problem that playoff percentages cannot fully explain. Every team in front of Detroit has its own schedule, injuries and deadline decisions. Even if the Tigers play well, they need several clubs to either slow down or collapse.

Detroit cannot control that part of the equation.

There is a legitimate argument for keeping the roster together.

The Tigers have scored 445 runs and allowed 417, giving them a plus-28 run differential. Their expected record based on runs scored and allowed is 56-50, six games better than their actual record.

That suggests Detroit has played more like a winning team than its record indicates.

The starting rotation has also been one of the club’s strengths. At the All-Star break, Tigers starters ranked fourth in the majors with a 3.50 ERA and third with a 3.66 FIP.

A rotation, led by Tarik Skubal gives Detroit a chance in a short postseason series. Casey Mize has also pitched well when healthy, while the eventual return of Jackson Jobe could provide another option. Tigers Manager A.J. Hinch said on Sunday that Jobe will make his next rehab start for Triple-A Toledo. 

Those are reasonable arguments for staying together.

The counterargument is that Detroit’s weaknesses have remained consistent throughout the season. The lineup has been uneven, and the bullpen has repeatedly failed to protect late leads.

Sunday’s loss was the 17th game this season in which the Tigers lost after holding a lead in the seventh inning or later.

That is not simply a matter of bad luck. It is also an indication that the roster does not have enough dependable late-inning pitching to convert close games.

Detroit could attempt to buy bullpen help, but that would require using prospect capital to improve a team that still has a losing record and sits behind five clubs in the wild-card standings.

The Tigers should not approach the deadline by trading everyone with value.

Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Colt Keith and the organization’s young pitching remain part of the path forward. The objective should be to strengthen the 2027 roster without moving players who can contribute to the next competitive Tigers team.

Selling should begin with the players whose value to another club could outweigh what Detroit receives by keeping them for the final two months.

Gleyber Torres and Jack Flaherty can become free agents after the season and are ineligible to receive another qualifying offer. Casey Mize can also become a free agent after 2026. Kyle Finnegan is under contract for 2027, while Kenley Jansen and Drew Anderson have club options for next season.

That gives Harris several levels of selling. Torres and Flaherty are traditional rental candidates. Mize could bring back more because of his performance and affordable salary. Finnegan, Jansen and Anderson could appeal to clubs looking for bullpen help.

Then there is Skubal.Trading Skubal should not be treated as a requirement for selling. His situation needs to be evaluated separately because he is capable of producing a return that changes the direction of the organization.

Detroit should only trade him if another team offers a package built around premium talent that can contribute in the majors relatively soon. Moving Skubal for a group of distant prospects would create another development timeline rather than help the existing core.

The Tigers can sell Torres, Flaherty or a reliever without trading Skubal. They could also trade Mize while keeping Skubal. There are several possible combinations between holding the roster together and conducting a complete teardown.

The Tigers have six games before the deadline, with three at home against Baltimore followed by three on the road against the Athletics. The deadline is Monday, Aug. 3, at 6 p.m. ET.

Those games will influence the conversation, particularly because Baltimore is one of the teams directly ahead of Detroit. They should not erase the larger picture.

A 5-1 stretch would move the Tigers closer to a playoff position, but it would not resolve their bullpen issues or change the contract status of their pending free agents. A 1-5 stretch would make selling more obvious, but the front office should already have a clear understanding of each player’s market.

The Tigers have improved enough to make their season worth following into August and September. They have also reached a point where the front office has to consider whether the value available at the deadline is more important than a playoff chance that remains below 50%.

Selling would not mean Detroit believes it cannot compete.

It would mean the Tigers understand the difference between being near a playoff position and being built to take advantage of one.

Over the next four articles, we will examine the Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks as potential trade partners. Each club has different needs, different levels of prospect depth and different reasons to contact Detroit.The question is no longer whether the Tigers have players other teams want.

It is whether Harris can use this deadline to improve the next version of the Tigers without giving up on the core that is already in place and how valuable other teams view the Tigers farm system. The Braves were able to put Jim Jarvis out of Double-A Erie last season in the Charlie Morton deal and has been contributing at shortstop since his call-up. 

Jarvis, like Hao-Yu Lee, wasn't a big name prospect, which is why sometimes those lists can be a challenge. Teams are always going to trust their scouts. The Tigers front office has said that across the board with their draft picks and development process and those same principles, should they pull a trade that does not involve a veteran, should come into play. 

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