The White Sox could still climb to the No. 5 seed, but moving up in the standings might actually give them a more difficult path through October.
Playoff scenarios for the Chicago White Sox have felt pretty straightforward for weeks now.
If the White Sox are going to make it, it'll either be as the AL Central champion, which at this point would come with an almost guaranteed No. 2 seed and first-round bye straight to the ALDS, or they'll secure the final spot in the American League as the third wild card team.
The White Sox could be just one day away from clinching a playoff spot and guaranteeing themselves an opportunity to play postseason baseball. It may come down to the wire before we determine the eventual AL Central champion, but as we get closer to the end of the regular season, there's another playoff scenario for the White Sox that's not getting enough attention.
Could the White Sox Pass Boston?
With Tuesday's win over the Kansas City Royals and the Cleveland Guardians defeating the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, Chicago failed to gain a game on Cleveland in the AL Central and move back into first place. But the White Sox did gain a game on Boston.
The Red Sox are 4-8 over their last 12 games and currently riding a three-game losing streak. It's dropped them to 84-73 on the season, and while they've already clinched a playoff spot and been able to celebrate the incredible run they went on over the summer, the White Sox are beginning to threaten Boston for playoff seeding. The Red Sox are limping toward October.
At 81-76, the White Sox are three games behind the Red Sox in the standings. Boston also owns the tiebreaker over Chicago due to its head-to-head record during the regular season, so it remains an unlikely scenario.
But in a world where the White Sox keep winning but are unable to gain ground on Cleveland because the Guardians continue their winning streak, the Red Sox suddenly become a team worth monitoring very closely.
Chicago would effectively need to make up four games over the final five to jump Boston in the standings. That's obviously a difficult path, but given Boston's recent slide, it isn't completely out of the question.
The Red Sox have two more games against Cleveland before wrapping up the regular season with a weekend series against the Chicago Cubs. It's not an easy schedule by any means.
Lower Seed Is Better
Now, I should clarify that while it would technically give the White Sox the higher seed, and while it would certainly be encouraging to see them stay hot to close out the regular season, overtaking Boston for the No. 5 seed and second wild card spot wouldn't actually be a good thing.
The current playoff format benefits a team in the White Sox's position. They're either AL Central champions, which would likely earn them a first-round bye straight to the ALDS, or they're the No. 6 seed and face the eventual AL West winner in the Wild Card Series.
Boston, meanwhile, would have to play the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Passing the Red Sox would mean the White Sox take on that responsibility instead.
It would also mean that winning the Wild Card Series would send Chicago into an ALDS matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays, the best team in the American League.
It's absolutely unfair and unbalanced, but there can be no question that the more favorable path to the ALCS and World Series lies with being the No. 2, No. 3 or No. 6 seed in the AL playoff picture. That means matchups with some combination of the Guardians, Rangers, and Astros rather than the formidable AL East gauntlet.
While it remains unlikely, this is a scenario that's not being talked about enough. The ramifications for Chicago's postseason path would be drastic if Boston continues to free fall while the White Sox keep winning.
