A Meaningful Detail That Makes the Munetaka Murakami Deal Even Better for White Sox

You’d be hard-pressed to find a Chicago White Sox fan who’s critical of the team for signing Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami to a two-year, $34 million contract this offseason.

That probably extends beyond the South Side, too. The White Sox landing Murakami was nationally cheered as a strong move—one that immediately improves the big-league roster with enormous upside, subtly shifts the organization’s broader perception around the league, and opens the door to the Japanese market moving forward.

It’s a win all around, even if it’s “only” a two-year contract.

But there’s one important detail buried in Murakami’s deal that hasn’t been discussed nearly enough—and it makes the signing even better for the White Sox.

Under the current posting rules and international free-agent guidelines, Murakami will be eligible for a qualifying offer when his two-year contract expires after the 2027 season.

That's pretty significant. 

For starters, the obvious. A qualifying offer could effectively turn Murakami’s two-year deal into a three-year arrangement if he accepts it.

But even if we assume he won’t, the White Sox would still be compensated for losing him in free agency.

Chicago is a net payor club, but not one that exceeds the luxury-tax threshold. That places the White Sox in the middle tier for compensatory draft picks tied to declined qualifying offers.

To put that in perspective, when Carlos Rodón pitched one season with San Francisco and then declined a qualifying offer to sign with the Yankees, the Giants received a compensatory selection after Competitive Balance Round B—No. 69 overall in the 2023 MLB Draft.

If the White Sox lose Murakami under similar circumstances, they’d be looking at comparable compensation.

Up to this point, most people have assumed the White Sox had three realistic outcomes with Murakami:

National media has already treated the third option like a foregone conclusion. But qualifying-offer eligibility muddies the waters—in a good way.

For the White Sox to be incentivized to trade Murakami, they’ll now need a return that clearly exceeds the value of a compensatory pick in the late-60s range, plus the added bonus-pool and international signing money that comes with it.

If that bar isn’t met, Chicago can simply carry Murakami through the end of 2027 and issue the qualifying offer.

Maybe he accepts it, likely in the $22–24 million range. Maybe the two sides use it as a bridge to negotiate a longer-term deal. Or maybe he walks—and the White Sox still come away with some kickback. 

The "middle ground" is where the qualifying offer could become a factor.

Obviously, if Murakami struggles badly and can’t make enough contact, the White Sox won’t offer him $24 million for a season.

And if he turns into one of the game’s most dangerous power hitters, Chicago will either extend him or trade him for a prospect haul that dwarfs any compensatory pick.

But there’s a middle ground.

Say Murakami hits 30–35 home runs annually, shows some swing-and-miss, and runs a low batting average. He’s not getting Kyle Schwarber money—but he’s absolutely living up to his $17 million AAV.

He could be good, not great. And in that scenario, a qualifying offer isn’t unreasonable at all.

Without QO eligibility, the White Sox would be stuck asking uncomfortable questions: Is he productive enough to extend? Is the trade market strong enough to justify moving him?

Now, they may not have to answer those questions at all.

Chicago can issue the qualifying offer, explore a longer-term deal at a price they’re comfortable with, and—if it doesn’t work—avoid walking away empty-handed.

It’s a minor detail on the surface. But it quietly protects the White Sox across every possible outcome and raises the floor of the entire signing.

That’s what makes the Murakami deal such a no-brainer—and why it deserves even more credit than it’s already getting.