The White Sox have exceeded expectations through the first two months of the 2026 season, but growing concerns surrounding the starting rotation could threaten their chances of staying in the playoff race.
There is no debate that the Chicago White Sox have been playing above expectations throughout 2026 thus far.
Entering play on Sunday, the White Sox are 26-25, sitting in second place in the AL Central and holding a wild card spot by 1.5 games.
With every series that goes by, the White Sox seem to prove that this surprising start is no fluke, but rather an indication of who they are as a team.
They have an exciting offense, tremendous clubhouse culture, and continuously find ways to win games. But if there's one thing to be concerned about for the White Sox moving forward, it's the pitching staff. And if the starting rotation doesn't get fixed soon, the White Sox won't last long as a legitimate playoff contender.
Davis Martin is one of the best starters in Major League Baseball. The White Sox are 9-1 when Martin takes the mound. He has a 2.04 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP. He's eighth in Major League Baseball in ERA. Martin and Chris Sale are the only top-10 ERA leaders with seven wins on the season.
But after Martin, the White Sox are starting to run out of options. Reality is beginning to catch up to a few of these White Sox starting pitchers who were overachieving.
Since the start of May, Erick Fedde has made four starts and thrown 16 innings with a 10.13 ERA. He's allowed 28 hits, 18 earned runs, and seven home runs in those 16 innings, while averaging only four innings per start. Fedde’s ERA for the season is now 5.47 with an 0-5 record.
Anthony Kay got roughed up at the end of April, but has actually been productive in May, posting a 2.11 ERA in four starts and 21.1 innings this month. But if we're looking at the metrics, Kay has gotten pretty lucky to escape unscathed in a few of these outings. His expected ERA is 5.90 with an expected batting average against of .280. He's in the bottom 20% of MLB pitchers in whiff rate and strikeout rate.
Time will tell, but the metrics certainly suggest regression is coming for Kay, and his 4.27 ERA on the season likely won't last.
I'm less concerned about Sean Burke moving forward. He hasn't had his best stuff the last few times out, but he's also looked dominant when at his best. He's harnessed his control this season, and the 4.08 ERA seems rather sustainable. Noah Schultz should get better too.
Schultz has gotten pretty unlucky with batted ball luck, but the walks certainly need to be fixed if he is going to get back to the version of himself we saw a few weeks ago. In three starts from April 19 to May 1, Noah Schultz allowed three runs and seven hits in 17 innings pitched. I still think that pitcher is in there, but he needs to work more efficiently and trust his stuff to play in the strike zone.
Even if we are banking on Burke and Schultz to be solid, the White Sox can't afford to have 40% of their starting rotation struggling to get through five innings and taking them out of ballgames. And where the real concern kicks in for me is the fact that there isn't much help on the way.
Tanner McDougal seemed to be the next man up before going down with a right flexor strain that could sideline him for months. Hagen Smith has walked 27 batters in 33.2 innings in Triple-A Charlotte this season and hasn't been good enough to inspire much confidence if he were to get promoted.
David Sandlin might be next in line for an opportunity. He's got a 0.55 ERA in 16.1 minor league innings thus far, but he's still not stretched out enough to be a regular starting pitcher yet.
It's a tough spot for Chris Getz and the White Sox front office to be in. You know your need, yet it's still too early in the season for Chicago to jeopardize any of its future in the name of a playoff push.
The White Sox may be forced to tread water for the next month or so, but that could be all it takes to push them out of the race, especially if pitchers like Erick Fedde and Anthony Kay can't make more competitive starts.
Chicago has a gauntlet stretch of the schedule coming up in which they'll play the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and New York Yankees in four straight series.
The Yankees, Braves, and Dodgers are three of the top five offenses in baseball in runs scored. So if the White Sox can't get outs against the league-worst San Francisco Giants, things could get out of hand in the month of June.
