The Orioles Offer a Cautionary Tale for the White Sox

A series win over the Baltimore Orioles this week helped the Chicago White Sox get back on track with their play on the road before a make-or-break series later this week against the Cleveland Guardians.

It also served as a reminder of what can happen when you don't play your cards right, and a warning to the White Sox front office.

It wasn't even five years ago that we started to see the Orioles ascend from one of baseball's worst teams to one of the most dominant clubs in the sport. Baltimore went 52-110 in 2021, then improved by 31 games to finish 83-79 in 2022. By 2023, the Orioles were 101-61, way ahead of schedule and looking like they were here to stay. Because the Orioles weren't just good, they were also young.

That 2023 team had 22-year-old Gunnar Henderson launch 28 home runs and win AL Rookie of the Year. 25-year-old catcher Adley Rutschman hit 20 home runs and made the AL All-Star team for the first time in his career. Prospects Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, Joey Ortiz, and Heston Kjerstad all made their MLB debuts as well.

Baltimore had a young core and a high-powered offense, but unquestionably needed more pitching to become a real contender. That proved true in the ALDS when the Orioles were promptly swept by the Texas Rangers.

That sounds an awful lot like the current situation facing the Chicago White Sox.

By now, we know that this team is good. They're in first place in the AL Central at the start of July. They have a young core, more prospects on the way, and one of the more explosive offenses in baseball. What the White Sox lack is pitching. And that leads to an interesting dilemma for GM Chris Getz and Chicago's front office at the upcoming trade deadline.

There is a common belief right now that the White Sox are not going to move on from any of their top prospects in an effort to make a playoff push or add to this core too quickly. And there might be some merit to that argument. But if you look at how the Baltimore Orioles went about things and where they're at as an organization right now, it really highlights the danger of that approach.

Some prospects become future stars, but others have their greatest value while they're still in the minor leagues as an unknown. The Orioles were in trade discussions with plenty of teams over the years about adding a frontline starting pitcher, but they were never willing to pull the trigger on any of their top prospects.

Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias turned his nose up at the thought of trading for Dylan Cease from the White Sox. They've also been tied to pitchers like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and others over the years.

The White Sox, in particular, wanted a package centered around Coby Mayo or Jackson Holliday, and Baltimore had no interest in entertaining that kind of trade.

Let's look at where that got them. While they made the postseason in back-to-back seasons from 2023 to 2024, the Orioles did not win a single playoff game. By 2025, they were back in last place in the AL East with a 75-87 record. And now here they sit at 40-48 after losing a series to the White Sox this week.

Coby Mayo has a career batting average of .195 with a .632 OPS in 170 games played. Jackson Holliday has a career batting average of .226 with a .660 OPS. Heston Kjerstad never got a regular opportunity at the MLB level, and he has a .686 OPS in Triple-A this season.

Almost all of those players have seen their value crater, while the Orioles' pitching staff continues to let them down year after year.

So what lesson should the White Sox take away from this? The fact that prospects are prospects for a reason. And while I'm uncomfortable with the idea of Chicago jeopardizing its farm system for rentals at this year's trade deadline, I do think it would be wise for the White Sox to consider adding controllable starting pitchers who are proven commodities at the big league level.

It might be tough to think about losing Billy Carlson or Jaden Fauske, or even an MLB-ready player like Jacob Gonzalez. And I'm not sure what the right solution for Chicago is. But I do know that Chris Getz needs to be open-minded about the whole thing.

Some of these players will be at their peak value right now. And if the White Sox don't jump on the opportunity to add, they could end up squandering a magical season. The Orioles are proof that you never know how long the window will be open.