After early concerns about regression and lack of depth, the White Sox starting rotation has quietly stabilized the team, posting strong numbers while the offense continues to search for consistency.
I was rather bearish on the Chicago White Sox coming into 2026, predicting the team to finish 68-94 before the regular season began.
Now, as we approach the end of April, that projection seems to have some legs. But how we’ve gotten here couldn’t be further from what I expected.
In my eyes, the biggest weakness for the White Sox in 2026 was going to be the starting rotation. Despite some flashes of success from a handful of young starters in 2025, the underlying data suggested regression would be coming for Shane Smith, Sean Burke, and Davis Martin—key arms who retained rotation spots out of spring training.
Add in the fact that veteran Erick Fedde is now 33 years old, bounced around three different MLB organizations in 2025, and posted a 5.49 ERA, along with Anthony Kay—who showed promise after reviving his career in Japan but still felt like a long shot given his limited MLB sample size—and the writing was on the wall.
Or so I thought.
I envisioned a White Sox team powered by a fun, explosive offense. A young core led by Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero, and Miguel Vargas taking steps forward in their development, while Munetaka Murakami took Major League Baseball by storm. But I expected that group to be consistently let down by a pitching staff that would rank among the worst in baseball.
The opposite has been true.
The pitching staff got off to a rough start on the opening road trip, allowing over seven runs per game across the first two series as the White Sox stumbled out of the gate at 1-5. But since then, the starting rotation has quietly become the strength of this team, while a frustrating and mostly dormant offense has held them back.
Prior to the White Sox bats coming alive in Sacramento over the weekend, Chicago ranked dead last in baseball in nearly every major offensive category. And with the exception of Shane Smith, who has since been optioned to Triple-A Charlotte for a reset, the starting rotation has been a model of consistency.
Across 18 starts (or outings, factoring in openers) from Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Erick Fedde, Anthony Kay, and Noah Schultz, the group has posted a 3.30 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 5-6 record.
Thanks in large part to bullpen struggles, the White Sox still rank 26th in baseball with a 4.83 team ERA. But the starting rotation has undoubtedly been the most surprising strength of this group.
If the bats can start to come around and produce more consistently, the wins will follow. The floor of this 2026 White Sox team is being raised significantly by the rotation’s steadiness.
And better yet, more help is on the way.
If any of these starters begin to fade as the season progresses, Tanner McDougal (No. 6 prospect, 3.26 ERA) and Hagen Smith (No. 4 prospect, 1.38 ERA) are both waiting in the wings at Triple-A Charlotte and should make their MLB debuts at some point in 2026.