Shingo Takatsu didn’t hesitate when asked about Murakami’s rookie outlook — and his bold home run prediction only adds to the intrigue surrounding the White Sox slugger’s rookie season.
The one question every Chicago White Sox fan wants answered is simple: what can realistically be expected from Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami in his rookie season in Major League Baseball?
Murakami is an international superstar. He’s one of the most recognizable figures in Japanese baseball and holds Japan’s single-season home run record.
Back in 2022, at just 22 years old, Murakami launched 56 home runs in 141 NPB games — doing so in what many considered a “dead ball” era in Japan. That’s elite power by any standard. And it’s the kind of production that is impossible for White Sox fans to ignore.
But MLB is not NPB.
There are legitimate concerns about Murakami’s bat-to-ball skills and his ability to consistently make contact against major league pitching. Questions about how he’ll handle velocity — something far more prevalent in MLB than in Japan — remain part of the projection.
If the expectation were for Murakami to immediately hit 50 home runs and seamlessly carry over his dominance from Japan, he would have commanded a contract well north of $100 million.
He also wouldn’t be wearing a White Sox uniform.
The truth is that nobody really knows what to expect. Everyone has their own guess and their own definition of success, but it’s difficult to gauge how quickly Murakami will adjust to the big leagues. That's how we ended up with Murakami on the South Side after settling for a two-year, $34 million contract.
Of course I find it difficult not to get excited watching spring training clips of Murakami making loud contact in live at-bats. Every batting practice video seems to fuel the optimism. Still, keeping expectations measured feels like the responsible approach.
That patience benefits everyone — not just the fan base, but Murakami himself.
Part of the reason the White Sox were an appealing destination for Murakami to land is the runway they can offer. There isn’t the immediate pressure of a contending roster with no margin for error. On the South Side, Murakami can settle in, take his lumps, and learn the league without every at-bat carrying extreme stakes.
If he struggles early, patience will be necessary. Adjustments don’t always happen overnight.
But staying grounded becomes more difficult when someone who knows him well makes a bold prediction.
Former White Sox closer Shingo Takatsu — who also managed Murakami in Japan — visited Camelback Ranch as the full squad reported for spring training. When Chuck Garfien asked him how many home runs Murakami would hit this season, Takatsu didn’t hesitate.
At first, it sounded like a joke. It wasn’t.
Takatsu expressed full confidence that Murakami would adjust quickly and “do well, if not hit 55.”
Hearing that from someone with firsthand experience certainly raises the ceiling in fans’ minds.
If Murakami somehow hits 55 home runs (or anything close) he wouldn’t just win Rookie of the Year — he’d likely be in the AL MVP conversation. He’d become one of the faces of Major League Baseball as a rookie.
And yes, in that scenario, the long-term business implications would become part of the conversation. On a two-year deal, if Murakami proves he’s a $200-300 million player in waiting, the White Sox would at least have to consider the value of a trade haul built around cost-controlled young talent.
That’s not a discussion anyone on the South Side wants to have right now. But it is the reality of roster building when you have the owner-imposed budget restrictions GM Chris Getz does.
Do I think Takatsu is right? Unfortunately not. Not because I don't believe Murakami will find success in Major League Baseball. It's more-so the fact that there have only been 24 seasons of 55 home runs in MLB history.
And as I said before, the safest approach remains the same: temper expectations, stay patient, and allow the adjustment process to unfold.
But I do think 35 home runs is well within reason and could absolutely be on the table. And I'll admit, with all the buzz I see coming out of White Sox camp, I'm beginning to feel like Murakami's highlight reel power is going to make for a very fun summer at Rate Field.