A surprising prediction from FanGraphs has Chicago White Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi jumping to a career-best 30 home runs in 2026.
If I told you that a player on the Chicago White Sox was being predicted to hit 30 home runs this season, you might not be all that surprised.
After all, Colson Montgomery launched 21 home runs in the second half of the 2025 season alone, and if he continues on that trajectory, 30 home runs is well within reach for the young shortstop.
Munetaka Murakami is another obvious candidate. He has 246 career home runs in Nippon Professional Baseball, and back in 2022, he won Japan’s MVP and Triple Crown while launching 56 home runs in a single season—an all-time NPB record.
Murakami also wasted no time making his presence felt, homering on Opening Day for the White Sox and showing early signs that his power will translate. A 30-homer season is very much on the table for him as well.
But what if it was neither of those guys?
Because that’s exactly what FanGraphs—one of the most well-respected baseball analytics outlets in the game—predicted. In a set of bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, they called their shot: veteran outfielder Andrew Benintendi will hit 30 or more home runs.
“For many hitters, predicting 30 home runs would not be so bold. Even those who’ve yet to reach that mark could believably make a tweak here or there to push themselves beyond that nice, round number. But entering his 11th season, nearly 5,000 plate appearances into his career, Andrew Benintendi has never hit more than 20 home runs in a season. A 50% increase on a well-established limit seems rather bold,” writes Ryan Blake of FanGraphs.
So what exactly led to such a bold prediction for a player who has never hit more than 20 home runs—and may even see decreased playing time this year?
FanGraphs pointed to a notable shift in Benintendi’s batted-ball profile from 2024 to 2025. His barrel rate nearly doubled year over year. While his bat speed remained relatively unchanged, the quality and intent of his contact improved.
In 2025, more than two-thirds of his batted balls were in the air, and over 25 percent were pulled—both top-25 marks in Major League Baseball.
That combination matters, especially at Rate Field, where right field plays very hitter-friendly. If Benintendi stays healthy, continues elevating the baseball, and maintains or improves that barrel rate, a career-high power output is well within reach.
Do I think he’ll hit 30? Absolutely not.
To me, that career high looks more like 23 to 25 home runs than 30. But that’s the point—this was a bold predictions piece. Saying Andrew Benintendi will hit 23 home runs isn’t exactly pushing the envelope, so credit to FanGraphs and Ryan Blake for taking a real swing here.
And if they’re right—if Benintendi is somehow on a 30-home run pace by the All-Star break—I’m not convinced he finishes the season with the White Sox.
He has two years remaining on his five-year, $75 million deal, still the largest free agent contract in franchise history. But as the organization continues to get younger and more athletic, the direction is becoming clear.
The White Sox are already willing to use Benintendi at DH to begin the 2026 season, a sign of where things may be headed. If he produces early, raises his value, and shows legitimate power, he could quickly become a trade candidate for a contender.
At that point, the next move would be obvious. The White Sox cash in on the value and open the door for a younger, long-term option in the outfield.