Denny Hamlin’s Lead is Shrinking Fast — and The Chase Field is Catching Up

MADISON, Ill. - Two races into the NASCAR Cup Series Chase, and the points picture already looks a lot different than it did just a couple of weeks ago.

Denny Hamlin dominated the regular season. He closed it out with an 89-point lead over second-place Ryan Blaney and looked like the clear favorite heading into the postseason.

Then the points reset, and that cushion immediately shrank to 25 points. After an 18th-place finish at Darlington and a win by his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell, the lead was down to 12.

Now, after a quiet ninth-place run at St. Louis that only netted him 33 points, Hamlin’s advantage over the field is just nine points — and the driver sitting right behind him is Kyle Larson.

This is not the start Hamlin wanted.

For most of the second half of the regular season he controlled the narrative. The No. 11 team was the most complete group in the garage, and Hamlin was the most consistent driver week in and week out.

Two races into The Chase, that control is slipping away. Larson won at St. Louis and jumped all the way to second in the standings. Bell finally broke through for his first win of the year in the Southern 500 and has climbed into the thick of it.

Both drivers entered The Chase without a victory this season. Both are getting hot at the exact right time.

Meanwhile, Hamlin has been a non-factor for long stretches of the first two postseason races. Ninth at St. Louis isn’t a disaster, but it’s not the kind of result that keeps the rest of the field at arm’s length either.

The pressure is starting to shift.

The good news for Hamlin is that some favorable tracks are still ahead. Bristol and Kansas have been good to him over the years, and those are the kind of places where a strong run can create separation again. He still has the best overall package in the series when everything is clicking. The car, the crew, and the experience are all still there.

What’s missing right now is the dominance we saw throughout the summer.

Larson and Bell aren’t the only ones making noise. Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick, the two drivers who pushed Hamlin the hardest during the regular season, haven’t gone anywhere. Blaney continues to stack solid finishes. Reddick has stabilized after a rough stretch and still carries the confidence that comes with five wins on the year.

The top of the standings is getting crowded.

Hamlin remains the favorite, but his history in The Chase is no secret. For all the regular-season success, the championship has been hard to finish. The talent has always been there. Closing it out has been the harder part. Right now the field is catching up, and the margin for error is shrinking by the week.

Denny Time needs to show up soon.

The rest of The Chase field is no longer waiting around for him to take control again. Larson has momentum. Bell has a win and confidence. Blaney and Reddick are still dangerous. Nine points is nothing in this format.

Hamlin has the résumé and the team to push back.

The next few races will tell us whether he still has the grip on this championship that he held for most of the year — or whether the rest of the field has finally closed the gap for good.

NASCAR Cup Series: The Chase Standings After St. Louis

1. Denny Hamlin — 2,168 points

2. Kyle Larson — 2,159 (-9)

3. Christopher Bell — 2,150 (-18)

4. Ryan Blaney — 2,135 (-33)

5. Tyler Reddick — 2,126 (-42)

6. Ty Gibbs — 2,117 (-51)

7. Joey Logano — 2,117 (-51)

8. Chase Briscoe — 2,109 (-59)

9. Carson Hocevar — 2,080 (-88)

10. Bubba Wallace — 2,078 (-90)

11. Chase Elliott — 2,075 (-93)

12. Austin Cindric — 2,060 (-108)

13. Chris Buescher — 2,057 (-111)

14. Ryan Preece — 2,055 (-113)

15. William Byron — 2,054 (-114)

16. Daniel Suárez — 2,049 (-119)