Hamlin, Bell All But Concede the NASCAR Cup Title to Larson

HOMESTEAD, Fla. -- To paraphrase Denny Hamlin, he and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell have about as much of a shot at winning the lottery as they have at winning the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship Sunday.

“I mean, I don't have any optimism. I don't. I'm here to try to have fun and try to win the race if possible. But I don't, yeah, I just, no matter what, I mean, there's obviously a chance you can win the lottery as well (laughter), but can you really count on that?” Hamlin said.

At 72 points behind Kyle Larson, who leads the standings, Hamlin has a chance at the championship -- if everything can fall his way. 

In the veteran's 21st Cup Series season, he can hope. Time is ticking but there is still stand in the hourglass and a partner in Progressive that's signed on to back him for 24 races in 2027 as he tries to race for a championship in what will be, for now, one last time.

“I would think next year would be my last best shot, but, I mean, we obviously had a great regular season, and the Chase tracks lined up great, but obviously we just did not perform at a championship level the last nine races. So, this is what you get," Hamlin said.

Hamlin and Bell struggled with executing races with cars that were capable of it.

“We had the had the car performance, had the speed, and yeah, just execution, lack of it, was a reason why we're not in it and they're in the spot that they are," Bell said.   

Every driver came into the season not knowing what to expect from the new format, including how far back you can start the Chase and still expect to have a chance at the title. Entering the season, the idea was that you had to be in the top six in the standings -- 50 points behind the leader -- to have a chance at the title.

Fitting for the Jimmie Johnson-like run that Kyle Larson and his No. 5 team have had this year in the Chase, they started seventh in the Chase -- 55 points behind No. 1 seed Denny Hamlin. Entering the finale, Larson has a 67-point lead over the next closest driver and a 70-point lead over Hamlin. In all, Larson has made up 125 points on Hamlin to get there.

“One thing that I'll take away is just the optimism of it doesn't matter where you finish the regular season. It comes down to 10 weeks, winning races. I forgot who was asking me at that media day but someone, one of you guys was asking of like, 'what's the final seed that can win the championship Chase?' and that number, I think, got blown out of the water by most of our picks," Bell said. "It truly is not how you start, but how those 10 races go.”

Speaking as the driver for a team that lost 125 points in the Chase, including 60 from a total lack of wins in the Chase compared to Larson's three, Hamlin said the Chase boils down to the "little moments."

"I think as long as the season is, this Chase can be defined by a few really small, short moments and you just don't really know what they are until it happens, or it's postmortem," Hamlin said. "There's just little moments that just was, like, the turning point that you're either going to end up winning the championship or not."

After losing the 2025 championship due to a caution that erased his lengthy lead with two laps to go and set up a restart where a strategy call allowed Kyle Larson to beat him, Hamlin likened last year to a "sudden death" and this year to "a slow bleed."

“I just was in shock for that, I don't know, 10- minute period from 3 to go to the checker waves. I'm behind the 5 (Kyle Larson) somehow. I hadn't seen them all day, that was a shock moment for me. Then this year, through each Playoff race, I mean, I'm on the way home, just thinking, 'gosh, it's all right, though, we'll have to just make up for it next week' and then we've just been tricking, trickling along and staying somewhat mathematically possible by being solid but this one was definitely a cut to the wrist," Hamlin said.

Losing another championship is a disappointment for not only Hamlin but also Toyota. This season, they clinched the manufacturer's championship three weeks ago at Phoenix Raceway after getting their 18th Cup win just this season. 

Instead of also getting their first driver's championship since 2019, Toyota could now have their seventh season in a row without a driver's title -- while Ford and Chevrolet have split the titles evenly, three-and-three, in those years. 

 “I think it needs to be looked at personally, internally with Toyota and JGR (Joe Gibbs Racing) and LEGACY (MOTOR CLUB) and 23XI, I think we have to figure out that the win ratio to the championship ratio, is just not been as good as it needs to be. So, I think that that needs to be a deep dive and honestly figure out what needs to be changed. I don't think we should just rinse and repeat and let's just do this all again next year," Hamlin said.

Toyota won the Cup driver's championship every other year from 2015 to 2019 and have won 78 Cup races since 2019. However, those three years are their only driver's titles.

Toyota clearly had the edge in 2026. Now, entering its fourth season with its body in 2027, Chevrolet will be in its second year with its new body and Ford will introduce its body. With the rise of Larson, it shows their advantage is fading -- even if execution won him the title.

"I was very confident that it was going to be a Toyota driver, that won the championship, and ultimately, I think whenever we got into the Chase, the 5 (Kyle Larson) car had a pickup in performance, but I still think by the numbers, there have been guys in Toyota cars specifically that have been faster than them, but just we all shot ourselves in a foot, one way or the other. All of us... all have unique circumstances that got us to where we're at today, and the 5 team just had the cleanest 10 races or nine races," Bell said.

Bell and Hamlin mathematically still have a chance at the championship but it's going to be tough.

MORE: How the NASCAR Cup Title Can Be Clinched at Homestead-Miami