NASCAR Cup Series The Chase Power Rankings Ahead of Phoenix

Here’s my updated look at the 16 drivers in The Chase after Charlotte and heading into Phoenix. Rankings are based on momentum and actual chances to win the championship, not just the points.

1. Kyle Larson – 2,367 (-)

Sixth at Charlotte was his worst finish of the entire Chase, and it still wasn’t that bad. He actually expanded his points lead by nine. That’s championship form. Larson is locked in right now and it’s going to take a lot more than one ordinary day to knock him off the top.

2. Chase Briscoe – -65 (+1)

He’s only fourth in points, but if anybody is going to run Larson down, it’s Briscoe. He’s cut 58 points off the lead in the last two weeks with back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Charlotte. The momentum is real. He just has to keep this pace going or the gap will stop shrinking.

3. Denny Hamlin – -49 (-1)

Down but not out. Hamlin finally finished ahead of Larson last week and still lost nine points somehow. That’s the frustrating part. He has to start winning again, and it has to start happening now. The window is still open, but it’s not staying open forever.

4. Christopher Bell – -51 (+2)

Had a real shot to win at Charlotte and couldn’t close it. That’s been the story of his whole season — eight second-place finishes and not enough trophies. Bell has been good all year. Good doesn’t win championships if you can’t finish the job.

5. Ryan Blaney – -85 (-1)

Solid third at Charlotte, but he’s still a long way from Larson. Blaney doesn’t just need wins at this point. He needs to dominate. The good news is Phoenix is arguably his best track and he already won there in the spring. This week is a must-win, stage points and all.

6. Joey Logano – -92 (-1)

Pretty much everything that applies to Blaney applies here too. Penske has that Space Jam magic at Phoenix, and Logano is going to need every bit of it. Three races left after this weekend. He has to make up ground now or the math gets ugly in a hurry.

7. Tyler Reddick – -114 (-)

Reddick still leads the series with five wins, but you have to go all the way back to April at Kansas to find the last one. An eighth at Charlotte was fine. Fine isn’t what this team looked like when they were winning everything early. He’s drifted a long way from true title contention.

8. Austin Cindric – -145 (+1)

Cindric's seventeenth at Charlotte was his worst finish of the Chase. Outside of that he’s been pretty solid. He’s not winning the championship, but a win at Phoenix would do a lot for momentum heading into next season.

9. Ty Gibbs – -156 (-1)

A 34th at Charlotte was brutal for Gibbs. Four finishes of 17th or worse in the postseason is a rough stretch. It’s still been a breakout year overall, but he’s learning the hard way that young drivers usually have to lose one before they win one. Don’t be surprised if JGR starts shifting more resources toward the cars with a better shot.

10. Carson Hocevar – -180 (+2)

A 14th at Charlotte wasn’t terrible for Hocevar. The next few weeks could give him a real chance to get back to victory lane. If they can recapture anything close to the Bristol form at Phoenix or Martinsville, he’s dangerous. Talladega is also right there, and he’s already won there this year.

11. Chase Elliott – -185 (+2)

Elliott is just kind of hanging around after a 12th at Charlotte. No top-five since Richmond. With how well Larson is running in the same equipment, it’s a legitimate head-scratcher why the No. 9 hasn’t been more of a factor.

12. Bubba Wallace – -185 (-2)

Three straight top-10s got wiped out by the DNF at Charlotte for Wallace. That one stung. Talladega next week is probably his last realistic shot at a win this season — the same place he got his first career victory.

13. Daniel Suárez – -215 (+1)

Suárez is still looking for that first top-10 of The Chase. A 13th at Charlotte after winning the Coke 600 there earlier this year feels like a missed chance. The rest of the run is mostly about gathering information for next season.

14. Chris Buescher – -216 (+1)

Tenth at Charlotte was Buescher's best finish of the postseason so far. That’s not saying much. Only 81 laps led all year and zero wins. He needs to get up front somewhere and build a little confidence before the year ends.

15. William Byron – -208 (-4)

Just when it looked like Byron was turning the corner, he picked up his second DNF of The Chase at Charlotte. Two steps forward, two steps back. After 12 wins over the previous three seasons, he’s flirting with a winless year if something doesn’t change soon.

16. Ryan Preece – -227 (-)

Fifteenth at Charlotte keeps him looking up at everybody else. At this point, Preece is probably counting down the days until 2027.

Larson still has the look of the champion. Briscoe has the momentum. Everybody else is running out of runway. Phoenix tends to separate the field in a hurry.