Jazz Struggles Could Turn Jaren Jackson Jr. Trade Into Huge Win for Grizzlies

The Utah Jazz are having a difficult 2026-27 season, and the Memphis Grizzlies are the sole beneficiaries. Their February decision to trade Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah for a package that included the most favorable of the Jazz’s, Cavaliers’, and Timberwolves’ 2027 first-round picks is beginning to look like a general managing master stroke.

Let it be said that it’s never nice to celebrate injuries. Everyone should hope for every player to stay as healthy as possible. Injuries are the worst component of professional sports.

Still, there are unavoidably beneficial aspects to other teams when a team’s key players get hurt. We’re seeing that in real time. The Jazz are 1-6 and have lost five straight, most recently a 119-97 loss at San Antonio on Monday. Jaren Jackson Jr. is set to miss at least six weeks after tearing the MCL in his right knee during the Grizzlies’ 110-105 win in Utah on Oct. 26. He’s averaging 16.3 points and 5.0 rebounds in four games this season. Lauri Markkanen sprained his right wrist in that same game and sat out the next one before returning against Portland:

So, any team would be happy to own their next first-round pick.

The Jazz entered this season with winning aspirations. It is still exceedingly early in the NBA season. It’s entirely possible that they’ll turn it around and make a playoff push.

That said, they are more likely to struggle without Jackson Jr. KSL Sports estimated that the Jazz will play about 20 to 25 games without him. Anything could happen, but the most probable outcome at the moment has the Jazz digging themselves a hole they’ll have to get out of.

That might be exactly what’s best for the Grizzlies.

Suppose the Jazz struggle in Jackson Jr.’s absence. Now, suppose that when he returns, they surge. That should have the Jazz somewhere in the play-in range.

Due to the NBA’s new 3-2-1 lottery rules, that could be a best-case scenario. If Utah finishes with the fourth- through 10th-worst record in the league, the pick has a 39% chance of landing in the top five, although it won’t stay there for the Grizzlies. The Jazz landed top-five picks in 2025 and 2026, and the new format bars a pick from landing in the top five in three consecutive drafts. That restriction travels with the pick, so it would be bumped to sixth even though it’s going to Memphis.

Ergo, sixth is the highest pick the Jazz can send the Grizzlies. So, Memphis still wants them to finish with the best possible odds. If they finish ninth or 10th in the West, the pick has a 28% chance of landing in the top five (so, sixth), the same odds as finishing in the bottom three.

Supposing the Grizzlies do receive that sixth overall pick, it could be franchise-changing. That’s particularly true if they continue to win throughout the year. Being a playoff team with a lottery pick is one of the most optimal situations in the league. The Grizzlies could add to their impressive collection of young talent, or trade the asset for a win-now piece:

No matter what happens, they’ll be thrilled to own this pick.