Rockets vs Celtics Spread Pick With Capela Out and George Resting

The Houston Rockets are 4.5-point favorites at home against the Boston Celtics tonight, and I'm laying the points again. Boston is on the second night of a road back-to-back, Paul George is resting and Houston hasn't lost at Toyota Center yet.

My pick is Rockets minus 4.5. Houston needs to win by five to cover, and I think the Rockets win by 10, 116-106. Some previews had Houston giving 5.5 earlier today, and the number has since settled at 4.5 across all four major sportsbooks. My guess is the market is reacting to Clint Capela being ruled out, and I don't think that absence should move the needle this much.

Rockets vs Celtics Odds

Odds are current as of 5:45 p.m. CT on Monday, Nov. 2, and are subject to change before tipoff.

DraftKings: Moneyline Rockets -191, Celtics +160. Spread Rockets -4.5 (-114), Celtics +4.5 (-106)

FanDuel: Moneyline Rockets -188, Celtics +158. Spread Rockets -4.5 (-114), Celtics +4.5 (-106)

BetMGM: Moneyline Rockets -190, Celtics +155. Spread Rockets -4.5 (-110), Celtics +4.5 (-110)

Caesars: Moneyline Rockets -190, Celtics +158. Spread Rockets -4.5 (-115), Celtics +4.5 (-105)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. CT at Toyota Center in Houston.

TV: Space City Home Network, SCHN+ and NBA League Pass.

Start with the schedule, because it's doing Houston a huge favor. Boston beat Orlando on the road Sunday afternoon, then flew to Houston for its second game in two nights. The Rockets had Sunday off after covering comfortably against Oklahoma City on Saturday, and they'll have Fred VanVleet back after he sat that one out.

The Celtics are also without George, who's listed out for rest on tonight's injury report and missing his first game of the season. He had 17 points, six rebounds, eight assists, two steals and two blocks in Orlando, and the Boston Globe called him key to Boston's defensive identity. 

Losing that kind of two-way wing on a tired night is a lot to overcome on the road.

Houston's home résumé backs it up. The Rockets are 3-0 at Toyota Center, beating Dallas by 18, Atlanta by 10 and Oklahoma City by 21. That's an average margin of more than 16 points, which makes 4.5 look pretty light.

This team has also been a machine against the number. The Rockets are 6-1 against the spread this season, according to the Boston Globe, and their lone loss came in that 116-111 game in Dallas. Boston is 3-2 with a push.

The defense is the real reason I trust Houston here. The Rockets are holding opponents to 30.1-percent shooting from three and 108.3 points per game, per the Globe. Boston lives on spacing and shotmaking, and asking a tired team without George to beat that defense from deep is a tall order.

Jayson Tatum is the guy who can wreck this pick. He scored 32 on Sunday, with 15 of those at the free-throw line, and he's going to have the ball a lot more with George out. Houston can throw Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. at him in waves, and that kind of length should make a long night feel even longer.

There are real ways this goes sideways. Capela and Steven Adams are both out, which leaves Alperen Şengün and Oscar Tshiebwe as the only true centers available. Mitchell Robinson is back for Boston after resting Sunday, giving the Celtics their full three-center rotation, according to MassLive. If Şengün gets into foul trouble like he did Saturday, Robinson could feast on the offensive glass.

The Celtics have also won five straight, and they're averaging 118.7 points per game. They won't roll over just because the schedule is ugly. What keeps me on Houston is the depth. The Rockets just bounced back from the Dallas loss by beating Oklahoma City by 21 without VanVleet, with Marcus Smart scoring 24 points in a spot start. Now VanVleet's back, Smart moves to the bench against his old team, and Houston gets a rested rotation against a Celtics group playing its second game in two nights.

Ime Udoka also gets a crack at the franchise he coached to the 2022 Finals, and Smart gets one against the team that drafted him. I don't think either of them needs extra motivation tonight, but it doesn't hurt.

The market has Houston by 4.5. I have the Rockets by 10, and I'm comfortable being higher on them than the books are. Give me Houston minus 4.5, and give me the Rockets 116-106.

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