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Rockets vs Timberwolves Prediction Edwards Out and Houston Covers

Nov 5, 2026 12:16 AMPublished Nov 5, 2026 12:16 AM

Capitalize on Minnesota’s depleted roster as Houston protects its perfect home record. With the league's stingiest rebounding defense, the Rockets are poised to dominate the short-handed visitors.

The Houston Rockets are 7.5-point favorites at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, and I'm laying the points one more time. Anthony Edwards is out, Houston is perfect at Toyota Center and this team hasn't given me a reason to bet against it yet.

My pick is Rockets minus 7.5. Houston needs to win by eight to cover, and I have the Rockets winning by 11, 116-105. A few previews had Houston giving 8.5 earlier today, and the number has since come down to 7.5 at all four major sportsbooks.

Rockets vs Timberwolves Odds

Odds are current as of 5:45 p.m. CT on Wednesday, Nov. 4, and are subject to change before tipoff.

DraftKings: Moneyline Rockets -278, Timberwolves +227. Spread Rockets -7.5 (-108), Timberwolves +7.5 (-111)

Starting with who isn't playing for Minnesota, Edwards had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee on Oct. 29 and could miss up to two months, according to RotoWire. Donte DiVincenzo is still out after Achilles surgery, and Terrence Shannon Jr. was downgraded to out with a hip contusion on tonight's injury report.

That's a lot of wing scoring to replace in one night. The Wolves have held up fine without Edwards, and I'll give them that. They're 2-1 since the surgery, beating the Clippers 127-101 and Milwaukee 112-100 with a loss in San Antonio in between. LaMelo Ball dropped a season-high 34 on 12-of-21 shooting against the Bucks, per the AP, and Ayo Dosunmu chipped in 19 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists.

The Rockets are 4-0 at Toyota Center, beating Dallas by 18, Atlanta by 10, Oklahoma City by 21 and Boston by 16. That's an average margin of more than 16 points, so eight doesn't scare me.

The defense is doing the heavy lifting. Houston allows 106.4 points per game, fourth-fewest in the league, and gives up a league-low 39 rebounds a night, according to StatsBench. Monday's win showed what that looks like, as the Rockets held Jayson Tatum to 19 points on 5-of-16 shooting and Boston to 38.6-percent shooting.

This is where I'd pump the brakes a little. Minnesota is 7-1 against the spread this season, per StatsBench, which matches Houston's 7-1 mark. The Wolves have covered three straight, and the Action Network's model only has Houston by about four.

The size matchup is my biggest worry. Clint Capela and Steven Adams are both out again, which leaves Alperen Şengün and Oscar Tshiebwe as the only true centers against Rudy Gobert. If Şengün gets into foul trouble, Gobert could live on the offensive glass and keep Minnesota hanging around.

I'm still betting on Şengün, who just put up 26 points and 10 assists on 12-of-15 shooting against Boston without either backup center, and the top takeaways from that win show how much this offense runs through him right now. Gobert can protect the rim, but Şengün pulling him away from the basket opens everything up for Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr.

Houston also still has the depth edge. Fred VanVleet and Reed Sheppard are both back, Tari Eason can slide up and play some small-ball five and Marcus Smart gives Houston another gritty defender. Minnesota doesn't have that many bodies to throw at the Rockets tonight.

The books have Houston by 7.5. I have the Rockets by 11, and I'm fine sitting a few points above the market again. Give me Houston minus 7.5, and give me the Rockets 116-105.

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