In less than 24 hours, the 2026 NBA draft lottery will be complete, and teams around the league will find out if their tanking season was worth it for the opportunity to pick one of the highly-rated prospects in this year's draft.

For the Golden State Warriors, their season didn't have the intention of tanking, but the product looked awfully similar as injuries devastated the team after January. As a result, the Warriors finished the season 37-45, and after losing in the Play-In Tournament to the Phoenix Suns, they were officially slotted into the lottery.

This draft class could mean a lot if the Warriors pick right, especially with everything else in the franchise appearing to still be quite uncertain. Just how lucky will the Warriors have to be to perhaps jump up into a favorable pick, or to at least remain at their current position?

The Warriors' final record gave them the 11th-best odds for the draft lottery. Though the 11th pick isn't anything to scoff at for a team that does have some relatively glaring needs, especially with the injuries they'll enter next season with, the real dream is to jump into the top four.

Overall, the Warriors have a 9.4% chance to see some favorable ping pong balls and rise into the top four.

Individually, each pick decreases in likelihood by 0.2% for each jump. They have a 2.76% chance to get the fourth pick, 2.45% to get third, 2.2% chance to get second, and finally, a flat 2% chance to obtain the coveted first pick.

Currently, the top four prospects are almost surely set in stone, though the order could be tweaked a bit. Many mock drafts and big boards have BYU forward AJ Dybantsa as the first overall pick, and almost all of the other drafts that don't slot Dybantsa first instead favor Kansas guard Darryn Peterson.

Duke forward Cameron Boozer has been seemingly locked into the third pick for much of the season, despite his national college player of the year award, and North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson rounds out the quartet as the likely fourth pick.

Despite all four being one-and-done players — Boozer isn't even 19 years old yet — they are all projected to be NBA-ready players that can impact winning right away while developing into potential future stars. If luck is on the Warriors' side, landing any one of these four can change the trajectory of the entire franchise.

Of course, the draft lottery doesn't often reward teams that finished in real striking distance of the playoffs, though the last two years did buck that trend with the Hawks and Mavericks winning the first pick despite winning 36 and 39 games, respectively.

It is most likely that the Warriors will stay in their 11th position, as they have 77.6% chance to stick there. From this spot, the board is a bit murky, depending on which players are drafted in the top 10 for talent or fit, but many mock drafts still have quality players on the board.

That can include guards like Mikel Brown Jr. or Labaron Philon Jr., or forwards like Nate Ament, Yaxel Lendeborg, Karim Lopez, or Hannes Steinbach.

However, the Warriors also have a relatively high chance of dropping to the 12th pick  — 12.59%, to be exact. It might not be the most major drop to fall just one spot, but if they end up having their sights set on a specific player, it may prompt a potential trade-up to ensure they can secure that player.

The Dubs also have a minuscule 0.4% chance to fall to 13th and less than 0.01% chance to fall all the way to 14th.

It'll be one of the most important draft lotteries for the Warriors in recent memory, as this pick slot can change how the rest of the offseason may play out.