Capitalize on Cam Edwards’ workload and Jordan Savoury’s consistency as the Spartans return home, looking to dominate the ground game and exploit Nebraska's defense in East Lansing.
Week One: 3-1
Week Two: 2-1
Week Three: 1-2
Overall: 6-4
Last week, the stifling defense of the Fighting Irish proved to be just too much for Michigan State's rushing attack.
Cam Edwards fell short on both of the bets I played involving him. Needing just 40 rushing yards, Edwards finished with 38 while also being kept out of the end zone.
Luckily, the Spartans stayed within 31 points, allowing us to salvage one win on the week.
Now, it's time to get back on the winning side of things.
With Nebraska coming to East Lansing for Michigan State's first Big Ten game of the season, here are three prop bets I love for Week Four.
Week Four: Nebraska (-5.5) at Michigan State | Over/Under 48.5 | 5 p.m. ET
Prop Play No. 1: Cam Edwards Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
Yup, I'm going right back to the well with Edwards.
He may have let me down on two of my three favorite plays last week, putting us in the red, but I'm not seeing red despite the misread.
Instead, we're going right back at him.
I believe Pat Fitzgerald and the Michigan State offense will do the same.
Nebraska has a tough defense, but it is nothing like the Fighting Irish defense Edwards faced last week. He had 27 carries in Week One and 21 in Week Two before being limited to just 12 carries in the loss to Notre Dame.
I expect Fitzgerald to get his bell-cow running back more involved once again.
Michigan State offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan already acknowledged that the Spartans got a bit too creative last week and indicated they will get back to being the team they want to be.
That means establishing the run, controlling the clock and winning the time-of-possession battle.
If Michigan State wants to do that against Nebraska, Edwards should be heavily involved.
The Pick: Cam Edwards over 15.5 rushing attempts.
Prop Play No. 2: Jordan Savoury Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)
Michigan State's young tight end, Jordan Savoury, has been one of the team's most consistent weapons to start the season.
Savoury has led the Spartans in receptions in each of the past two games and has quickly developed into a reliable target for quarterback Alessio Milivojevic.
What initially looked like Savoury becoming a safety blanket for Milivojevic has quickly turned into something more. He's not simply a check-down option when pressure arrives. He's becoming a premier target regardless of the situation.
Savoury's speed makes him especially dangerous when he gets into the middle of the field. He has already connected on a pair of crossing routes this season that turned into explosive gains.
Through three games, Savoury has recorded 11 receptions, with four in each of the first two games and three against Notre Dame.
I'm expecting that production to continue against Nebraska.
With a line of just 2.5 receptions, I like Savoury to keep his streak of three-or-more catches alive.
The Pick: Jordan Savoury over 2.5 receptions.
Prop Play No. 3: Jamal Rule Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The final bet is not a Michigan State play.
Instead, we're turning our scouting eyes toward the opposing offense and preparing for what could be a long day for the Spartans' run defense.
Nebraska running back Jamal Rule has been sensational to start the season. He currently sits third in the Big Ten in rushing with 329 yards and has not finished a game with fewer than 88 rushing yards.
He's also already surpassed 100 rushing yards twice this season.
Now, the defenses Rule has faced so far don't compare to what Michigan State will send his way. The Spartans are coming off a loss and should be motivated to put together a much stronger defensive performance.
But that's also part of the reason I like this number.
We're not asking Rule to reach 100 yards. We're simply asking him to get to 70.
He's fast, he's explosive and capable of turning a small crease into a big play. And while Michigan State has tackled as well as just about any team in the country to start the season, the loss of linebacker Brady Pretzlaff is one the Spartans will have to find a way to overcome.
Give me Rule to break off a couple of big runs in what should be a highly contested Big Ten matchup.
The Pick: Jamal Rule over 69.5 rushing yards.
The Week Four Card
Cam Edwards over 15.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Jordan Savoury over 2.5 receptions (-130)
Jamal Rule over 69.5 rushing yards (-115)
After going 1-2 against Notre Dame, it's time to get back on track.
Let's cash some tickets.
