ESPN projects a competitive 2026 for the Sooners, with plenty of work to do in the SEC, while trying to make a push through the College Football Playoff
ESPN released its Football Power Index rankings for the 2026 season, and Oklahoma came in at No. 12 overall.
That’s a solid ranking for the Sooners. It puts them right in the mix as one of the top teams in the country and the 6th highest ranked SEC team behind Texas, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M.
The projected win-loss record is 7.5-4.6. That feels low, even though the Sooners have a tough SEC schedule.
The win-out percentage is basically zero at 0.1, which seems fair as OU is highly unlikely to go undefeated and slip up somewhere along the way.
The win SEC championship percentage is 5.3, the make the CFP percentage is 28.2, while the make the national championship percentage is 4.5, and win national championship percentage is 2.0.
Those numbers show Oklahoma is projected to be competitive but not favored to win the win any rings of any sorts this season. That feels fair. The Sooners have the talent to make the playoff and compete, but they’re not the clear favorite in a loaded SEC.
This year's SEC screams parity. Going into 2026, it doesn't look like there is an elite team in the league, but there are a lot of really good teams. The conference has the most teams ranked in ESPN's FPI with 12.
This ranking is a good early look at how the national media sees the Sooners. No. 12 overall is respectable. It shows they’re expected to be one of the better teams in the conference and have a chance to make noise in the playoff.
The 28.2% chance to make the CFP is decent, and the 2.0% chance to win it all shows they’re not being overhyped.
Although the Sooners aren't favored to win anything significant, it isn't a bad spot to be in. The expectations are high but realistic. Expectations should be earned, and the program has yet to win a College Football Playoff game.
While it would appear the Sooners are headed in the right direction, there is still plenty of work to be done. Before even making a deep run in the CFP or winning the SEC Championship, Brent Venables' first objective will need to be doing a better job of beating OU's rivals.
Venables' record against rivals isn’t great yet: 1-1 against Oklahoma State, 1-3 against Texas, 1-1 against Missouri, and 1-0 against Nebraska. The Sooners haven't scored a touchdown in their last two meetings against the Longhorns.
The team has the pieces with John Mateer back, a loaded group of skill players, and what should be another elite defense. If everything comes together, they can exceed these projections.
The SEC is going to be brutal again. Having five teams ranked ahead of OU shows how deep the conference is. But the Sooners have the talent to beat any of those teams on a given day. There isn't a ton of separation among the top teams in the SEC.
This ranking gives a good baseline. Now it’s about going out and proving it on the field. The Sooners have a tough schedule, but they also have the roster to compete.
The foundation is solid. The pieces are in place. If Venables can lead this team to another 10-win season and a deep playoff run, while beating his rivals, he can silence a lot of the remaining doubters.
