The ESPN host claims the Sooners' brutal SEC gauntlet offers a rare lifeline, potentially rewarding a three-loss campaign with an unprecedented invitation to the expanded postseason
Paul Finebaum isn’t usually one to hand out easy paths, but he recently put Oklahoma in a small group of teams that could still reach the College Football Playoff even with three losses.
Speaking on The Paul Finebaum Show on ESPN Radio and the SEC Network, he laid it out clearly. "There are a couple of teams that would have a really good shot at making it at 9-3," Finebaum said. "Texas would be one. Oklahoma would be another. To get in with three losses, you better have played a significant schedule and nonconference. I think those are the two. LSU, probably because of playing Clemson."
Finebaum is acknowledging both the strength of Oklahoma’s schedule and the reality of how the expanded playoff works. A tough slate can create a path that softer schedules simply don’t have.
Still, history shows how difficult that path actually is.
No 9-3 team has ever made the College Football Playoff.
Two teams have gotten in at 10-3 — Clemson in 2024 and Alabama in 2025 — but both played in their conference championship games. That extra data point matters. A 9-3 team only plays 12 games and doesn’t get the benefit of a 13th against another strong opponent in a title game.
Recent near-misses drive the point home. In 2024, Alabama sat at 9-3 and was the first team left out when 11-2 SMU got in. In 2025, Texas finished 9-3 and was the third team on the outside looking in. Those examples show that while the door isn’t completely closed, it’s a very narrow one.
The current playoff format makes it even tougher, with the new rules in place this season. Now, all four Power conference champions receive automatic bids, and Notre Dame gets an automatic berth if it finishes in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings. That setup locks in several spots and leaves fewer at-large opportunities for three-loss teams, no matter how impressive their résumés look on paper.
Finebaum isn’t wrong that Oklahoma’s schedule gives it a better shot than most. Games against Michigan, Georgia, Texas and the rest of a brutal SEC gauntlet create the kind of résumé strength the committee has historically rewarded. A couple of those wins, especially on the road or against ranked teams, would carry significant weight. But relying on a 9-3 finish still feels like playing with fire.
The more realistic and healthier goal for this team is 10-2 or better. A 10-2 record with Oklahoma’s schedule would essentially lock up a playoff spot. That should be the standard.
The pieces are there for it — a healthy John Mateer, a loaded defense, and more experience across the roster than Brent Venables has had in previous seasons. The early stretch with Michigan, Georgia and Texas will go a long way toward deciding whether that 10-win threshold is reachable.
Finebaum’s comment is fair in the sense that the door isn’t completely shut at 9-3 for a team with this kind of schedule.
It’s just a door that almost never opens.
Oklahoma is better off treating three losses as a worst-case scenario rather than a viable backup plan. Win the games they’re supposed to win, take care of business in the middle of the league slate, and put themselves in position where the committee doesn’t have to debate them.
The Sooners have already shown they can compete at a high level in the SEC. Last year’s playoff appearance proved that. The next step is consistency and finishing with a record that removes any doubt.
Finebaum giving them a path at 9-3 is interesting. Making sure they don’t need that path is the better approach.
