Arch Manning surged late in 2025, but Texas needs better accuracy, fewer drops and a stronger run game to unlock his 2027 NFL Draft case.
Arch Manning changed the conversation around Texas football late in the 2025 season. Now the next step is obvious ... he has to become a more accurate passer if he wants to lead the Longhorns to a title and push toward the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Early in the season, the national panic around Manning was loud.
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Texas opened against defending national champion Ohio State, and the expectations were enormous for a young quarterback who hadn’t played much meaningful football in two years. That showed.
But after Texas’ loss to Florida, Manning started looking much more comfortable in Steve Sarkisian’s offense.
He steadied the Longhorns in a Red River win over Oklahoma, threw for 346 yards in an overtime victory at Mississippi State and topped 300 passing yards in three of Texas’ final four regular-season games.
His biggest statement may have come in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl against Michigan, where Manning threw for 221 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 155 yards and two more scores.
That performance showed the dual-threat upside everyone had been waiting to see.
Still, the NFL Draft conversation comes with a sharper standard.
Manning has completed 311 of 499 passes across three seasons at Texas, a 62.3 percent completion rate. That’s solid, but recent No. 1 overall quarterbacks have typically lived above 65 percent.
Mel Kiper Jr. said on “The First Draft” that top-pick quarterbacks need to be “up around 70 percent.”
That’s the next hurdle.
Texas can help him get there. The Longhorns added transfer wide receivers Cam Coleman and Sterling Berkhalter after a 2025 season that included 22 receiver drops.
Sarkisian also upgraded the running game with Hollywood Smothers, Raleek Brown and new running backs coach Jabbar Juluke.
Better receivers and a real rushing attack should make play-action matter again. That gives Manning cleaner reads, easier throws and fewer forced plays.
The tools are there. Now Texas needs Arch Manning’s accuracy to catch up with the hype.
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