Freezing temperatures at Soldier Field are a nightmare for Matthew Stafford and a dream for the Chicago Bears that could push them one step closer to the NFC Championship Game
Even at home, the Chicago Bears are clear underdogs on Sunday night as they prepare to host the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
The current line at FanDuel Sportsbook has Chicago at +3.5, and it’s not hard to see why.
It took another miraculous fourth-quarter comeback for the Bears to get past Green Bay and punch their ticket to divisional weekend. But there are still some obvious weaknesses with this team that can’t be ignored.
The defense, in particular, is a concern. And going up against Matthew Stafford — a veteran playoff quarterback, a Super Bowl winner, and possibly the league MVP this season — is daunting.
Then there’s Puka Nacua, who has a real case as the best wide receiver in football right now. Chicago may not have an easy answer in the secondary for him.
You have to believe in these Bears. You have to believe in Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. But you also have to admit the on-paper odds are stacked against them yet again.
Which is why one thing looms larger than anything else before kickoff: The weather.
You heard me. Early forecasts call for temperatures around 17 degrees at kickoff, with light flurries a distinct possibility.
Bear weather.
Those are conditions that should benefit Chicago — a team built to run the ball and powered by a quarterback whose arm talent allows him to throw through cold, wind, and less-than-ideal conditions.
The same cannot be said for Matthew Stafford.
Stafford has always been an indoor quarterback. From the warm conditions at the University of Georgia to the domes of Detroit and Los Angeles, his career has been built in controlled environments.
When the temperature is 40 degrees or lower, Stafford owns a 1–9 record in the NFL. In games with rain or snow, he’s also 1–9.
The coldest game he played this season was 45 degrees with a light drizzle in Charlotte. He threw two interceptions in that game — including a pick-six — and lost a fumble in a loss to the Panthers.
And it’s not just him. League-wide, dome teams over the last decade are a stunning 1–15 in playoff games played on the road in temperatures under 40 degrees.
So bring on the weather.
The Bears don’t want a shootout. They want a fight. They want to force the Rams to settle for field goals, grind out long possessions, and give themselves a chance to win it late.
Defensive turnovers have been a key to victory all season, and all of that becomes more likely when the game turns sloppy — when the ball is slick, your joints are tight, and the crowd at Soldier Field is roaring.
Home-field advantage matters this time of year. And Chicago, in January, is not a fun place to play.
If the weather does what it’s supposed to do, it might just be the great equalizer that pushes the Bears one step closer to the NFC Championship Game.