Caleb Williams vs. the Blitz: How the Bears' QB Carves Up Extra Pressure

The Chicago Bears made life difficult for opposing defensive coordinators last season. 

With coach Ben Johnson calling the plays, the offense had a healthy run-to-pass ratio, finishing with 574 passing attempts and 505 rushes. For most of the season, the Bears relied on their efficient rushing attack that finished No. 3 in the NFL in yards (2,345), but Johnson didn't hesitate to let Caleb Williams throw downfield. Williams averaged 4.7 pass attempts of 20+ air yards per game, ranking second only behind the Rams' Matthew Stafford (5.2). 

On the ground or through the air, the Bears had their options to combat what defenses wanted to do against Johnson's offense. Defensive coordinators chose to blitz Williams and did so often. 

According to two different stats-based websites, Williams was the most blitzed quarterback in the NFL last season. Radar360 logged 174 quarterback blitzes, and SumerSports tracked 203 blitz plays, both were the most in each database. 

SumerSports also calculated Williams EPA/Play (Expected Points Added) when blitzed vs. EPA/Play (Not Blitzed), and the Bears' quarterback finished with a +0.280 advantage, behind only Baltimore's Lamar Jackson (+0.348).

Here is how SumerSports summarized EPA. 

"The easiest way to think about EPA is 'yards with context.' You can use that context to do a lot of interesting analysis such as better define what success means on a particular play or down. Using EPA to define success rate simply means setting your success criteria to say 'did we get closer or farther away from scoring points?'"

When defenses tried to speed up Williams' internal clock by blitzing, the Bears' quarterback performed better. To take things even further with these metrics, SumerSports' Lindsay Rhodes removed scrambles from the equation. 

Williams still finished second behind Jackson in passing plays when blitzed. When you look at the chart below, you will notice that Drake Maye is no longer listed, even though he had the highest EPA/Play when blitzed (+0.332) and that's because "Maye's advantage comes largely from his scrambles (his EPA/play when blitzed goes negative when we remove scrambles from his number)," as Rhodes wrote in a follow up tweet.

During the 2025 NFL owners meetings, Johnson highlighted the importance of EPA in the passing as "one of the most critical factors in determining wins and losses."

Johnson also told reporters during last year's owners meetings that "whatever team has the higher passing game EPA at the end of the game, they generally win that game over 80% of the time. It’s a huge stat. That’s where we look to – how do we help inflate that number? Higher completion percentage, more run after the catch opportunities. That’s not to say we’re not going to take our shots down the field and look for big explosive plays, chunks or touchdowns that way. There’s a lot of ways we can get that done.”

Johnson made those comments prior to the 2025 regular season, and the Bears' offense made some steady progress on hitting some of the areas. However, there is still obvious room for improvement. 

The Bears' coach must continue to find ways to improve Williams' EPA when teams don't send extra defenders. In the first chart for quarterbacks EPA/Play vs. the blitz, only Geno Smith and Jackson were worse than Williams. 

With Williams entering the second year in Johnson's offense, he should have a better understanding of the timing and rhythm that is needed to operate the scheme.

The Bears' quarterback has shown he is effective under pressure. Once Williams brings that same efficiency to standard, clean-pocket situations, defensive coordinators won't just have another problem, they'll run out of answers.