Why Ben Johnson’s Bears Will Avoid Regression and Make Another Leap

Bears fans know all too well about one-and-done NFL seasons. 

Cody Parkey's infamous double doink missed field goal didn't just cost the Bears a 16-15 wild card loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, it effectively shattered the trajectory of a deeply promising Bears 2018 team. 

That team won the NFC North and there was optimism about the organization moving forward, but a third-place finish the following season and a forgetful playoff loss to the New Orleans Saints was the writing on the wall for Matt Nagy's Bears. 

Ben Johnson has already led his team to a playoff victory, which separates him from Chicago's two previous coaches, but there is still doubt surrounding the Bears going into the 2026 season. 

Although the Bears are unlikely to finish with the most takeaways in the NFL like they did in 2025 and probably won't have a +22 turnover differential, there are other statistics that highlight Johnson's team is set to make another run this year. 

NFL analytics expert Warren Sharp created a thread on X, highlighting important stats, starting with quarterback Caleb Williams. 

Johnson helped Williams reduce the catastrophic plays that he was prone to making in his rookie season. 

According to Sharp, Williams took a sack or threw an interception on 12% on his dropbacks, finishing 42 of 46 quarterbacks. "When pressured, he too a sack or threw an interception on 34% of his dropbacks," ranking 45 of 46 QBs. 

However, that number drastically changed in 2025. 

Under Johnson's tutelage, Williams reduced the sacks and interceptions thrown to just 5% of his dropbacks. That ranked third of 45 quarterbacks. 

When Williams was pressured, "he took a sack or threw an interception on 13% of his dropbacks, down from 34%." Only Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was better in that category. 

[READ: Caleb Williams vs. the Blitz: How the Bears' QB Carves Up Extra Pressure]

The reason Sharp highlighted these stats is because of the negative effects interceptions and sacks have on games and drives. 

"In the last five years, teams that throw 0 interceptions are 459-217 (.678) and cover 64.6% of games," Sharp wrote. "Meanwhile, teams that throw an interception are 514-887 (.367) and cover 36.3% of games."

And here is the historically data on sacks. 

"In the last five years, teams that allow 0 sacks on a drive score on 41% of drives, punt on 32% of drives, score touchdowns on 26% of drives, and average 2.2 points per drive," Sharp wrote. "Meanwhile, teams that allow at least 1 sack on a drive score on 25% of drives, punt on 50% of drives, score touchdowns on 9% of drives, and average 1.1 points per drive."

It's important to note that Williams hasn't transformed into a conservative quarterback under Johnson. He ended with the second-most pass attempts of 20+ air yards per game behind Stafford.

Williams has learned how to protect the football. If the Bears' quarterback can continue to limit turnovers, then Chicago will finish amongst the top teams in the NFC for a second-straight season.