Are The Buffalo Bills Good Enough To Go Deep In The Playoffs?

The Buffalo Bills aren’t out of the playoff race, but the vibe sure feels different than it did a month ago. At one point the Bills sat at 4–0 with a 98% chance to make the postseason. Now, after losing four of their last seven, those odds have fallen to 83%. Still solid, but trending in the wrong direction. And for a team that has spent years trying to convince the league it belongs among the AFC’s elites, slipping backwards right now is the last thing fans want to see. 

What’s made this season even more frustrating is who they’re losing to versus who they’re beating. The Bills have wins over Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Baker Mayfield, but losses to Davis Mills, Michael Penix Jr., and Tua Tagovailoa. It’s the definition of playing down to your competition, a narrative this team never seems able to shake. 

And if you’re still holding out hope for the AFC East crown or the No. 1 seed? Don’t. Buffalo’s chances of winning the division sit at 7%, and the odds of claiming the conference’s top spot are just 3%. Both are functionally gone. The Bills aren’t chasing seeding, they’re chasing survival. 

You’ll hear some fans say, “Just get in and see what happens.” But that’s never been who the Bills are under this regime or any regime for that matter. This team does not win playoff games on the road. In fact, they haven’t done so since 1993. Only three times in franchise history has Buffalo won a playoff game away from Orchard Park, and nothing about this roster suggests that’s suddenly going to change. 

Even this season tells the same story. Nearly every loss has come away from home. And while Josh Allen can still put this team on his back, he shouldn’t have to. Right now, he’s being forced to do everything, and that’s not sustainable football. 

The receiver room is inconsistent. The run defense collapses far too easily. And when Allen goes into hero mode, the returns diminish fast. Opponents aren’t scared of the Bills physically, schematically, or stylistically. And that's a problem not only now, but in January as well. 

Let’s talk about what a potential playoff road looks like: likely trips to Baltimore, Denver, or  Indianapolis. Every one of those teams can do something the Bills struggle to handle: run the ball. And that’s where the real fear should be.

Jonathan Taylor alone is a nightmare matchup. In 2021 he shredded the Bills for 185 yards and three touchdowns in Buffalo during a 41–15 Colts win. Even in their more recent meeting—a Bills victory—he still gashed them for over 100 yards with over five yards per carry. And he’s not alone. De’Von Achane, Derrick Henry...the list goes on. Every time Buffalo faces a strong ground game, it becomes a problem. 

That’s exactly the kind of football you see in the postseason: cold weather, physical fronts, and teams who can control the line of scrimmage. It’s hard to trust Buffalo in that environment when the evidence continues piling up the other way.

Probably. They currently sit seventh in the AFC and hold the tiebreaker over Kansas City, but not Houston. Pittsburgh also looms this weekend with huge tiebreaker implications. Even still, the Bills are more likely than not to get in. 

But here’s the honest, uncomfortable truth: nothing about this team right now suggests they’re capable of a deep run. Even if they reach the postseason, they feel more “one-and-done” than legitimate contender. 

Could things change? Sure. They still have Josh Allen, and he’s the ultimate equalizer when he’s playing clean, efficient football. But there’s a difference between having hope and having evidence. And, so far this season, the Bills haven’t provided much of the latter.