Navigating 2026 free agency, Dallas must avoid overvaluing players. Discover which vital Cowboys deserve new contracts and who's expendable.
FRISCO - It's called "recency bias,'' and it causes our brains to overreact to the smaller picture of "what just happened'' rather than to evaluate a bigger picture.
And as they approach 2026 NFL free agency and what to do in-house, the Dallas Cowboys need to avoid it.
I can come up with a top five of Cowboys who should justifiably be re-signed. But I cannot come up with five "must-signs'' - not off a team that in 2026 was mediocre at best.
Under Jerry and Stephen Jones, Dallas' in-house signing philosophy has been sound; they emphasize "paying our own.''
That doesn't deflect from the fair criticism of what the Joneses usually decline to do, which is use free agency to pay top dollar to buy other teams' stars; their bargain-minded approach is flawed because the best way to get the best talent is to pay the best price.
But in-house? Dallas keeps its own "special'' players ... and Dallas does something else right, too: If a Cowboy who enters free agency isn't deemed "special,'' the Joneses (and personnel boss Will McClay) don't make the mistake of overpaying.
All of which takes us to the negotiating table for 2026 free agency.
Here, in reverse order of importance, are the Cowboys' top five free agents ...
5 BROCK HOFFMAN/T.J. BASS: It's probably not fair to bunch them together, but it'd be nice to find a cost-effective way to retain both ... so we'll do it that way.
Hoffman and Bass have position flex, are tough guys and are team-first guys. ... and each of them made about $1 million in 2026. We fear that other NFL teams might view one or both of them as starters and will pay three times that to make it happen elsewhere. ...
And the Cowboys might have to start over in building their O-line depth.
4 JADEVEON CLOWNEY: Clowney enters Week 18 with 35 tackles and 5.5 sacks, which puts him at the top of Dallas' rankings.
He's saying that not only would he like to re-sign with Dallas, but that he'd also like to do so in a way that would have him involved in training camp ... something that would be rather new to him as he's moved through his career as a sort of mercenary.
READ MORE: Jadeveon Clowney Makes 2026 Cowboys Future Wish Perfectly Clear
A commitment to the Cowboys? Fine. A commitment in great excess of the $3.65 million he was paid this year? He's about to turn 33, and so prioritizing him at a substantially higher dollar figure than that would not be fine.
3 JAVONTE WILLIAMS: Javonte is a perfect example of the "must-sign'' mistake. A free-agency steal a year ago at just $3.5 million, Williams has been far more successful than the Cowboys ever envisioned.
Going into Week 18, he's got 1,338 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns while serving as a model citizen in the locker room.
READ MORE: Cowboys Should Rest Injured Javonte Williams But Work On Signing RB for 2026
The question here is, "How much?'' Arguing that Javonte is a "must-sign'' without including a dollar figure is purposeless. Is he worth $5 million APY to Dallas? Maybe. But if somebody else wants to pay him substantially more than that?
He's no longer a Dallas "must-sign.''
2 GEORGE PICKENS: All things considered, the Cowboys hit the jackpot here in trading a third-rounder to the Steelers for the "controversial'' wideout.
He's been spectacular, as Pickens was voted into the Pro Bowl with 92 receptions for 1,420 yards and nine touchdowns.
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We've already reported via a team source that the "easy path'' includes using the $28 million franchise tag on Pickens (who by the way is just 24) while also discussing with him a long-term deal.
1 BRANDON AUBREY: Aubrey is a truly unique weapon who tilts the field in Dallas' favor as the NFL's most powerful (and close to most accurate) kicker. A contract that pays him in excess of $6 million APY can make him the highest-paid kicker in NFL history while at the same time not breaking the bank of the salary cap.
In the end? Aubrey is so good and so easy to do that he's a "must-sign,'' and Pickens is right there with him. But recency bias aside? The other three/four are valuable ... but not "musts.''