Giants' Matchup Against Commanders is More Dangerous Than You Think

The New York Giants will face the Washington Commanders in the nation's capital this Sunday in a matchup that looks good for the Giants on paper.

But that's not how the game is played.

Yes, the Giants are 3-1 and the Commanders are 1-3. New York has unquestionably looked like the better, more well-coached team ... but Washington is favored by 3.5 points.

Why? Well, Washington being at home certainly helps, as does the fact that Jayden Daniels is expected to be back under center.

Generally, you don't expect teams to sweep divisional opponents during the season. You typically just look for a split, winning the home game and losing on the road.

So I completely understand why the Giants are the underdogs here.

It's also worth noting that while New York has won back-to-back games, those contests were at MetLife Stadium and against two of the NFL's lesser teams in the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals.

Not that the Commanders are so great, but I think most would agree they are superior to the Titans and Cardinals, especially at home.

All three of the Giants' wins in 2026 have come in their own building, so going into Washington and emerging with a victory is a completely different task.

Now, it does look like the Commanders will be without No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin due to a hamstring injury, which is significant. Stefon Diggs is battling a hamstring issue, as well, but he returned to practice on Thursday and is trending in the right direction.

Getting Daniels back at quarterback is obviously huge for Washington, but its receiving corps appears to be compromised, which plays significantly into New York's favor.

But can I go as far to pick the Giants in this game? I just can't.

If the matchup were at the Meadowlands, I would probably feel differently. But with the clash taking place at Northwest Stadium in Maryland, I'm leaning toward the Commanders.

Washington is also a desperate team right now. The Commanders absolutely have to win this game, and with the NFC East in shambles, a victory would get them to 2-3 and put them right back in the race.

A loss wouldn't necessarily end their season, but a 1-4 hole would obviously be tough to climb out of.

It's also easy to forget that the Giants are incredibly injured. They've managed to win two straight sans Jaxson Dart and Brian Burns, but how long will that last?

If New York can pull out a win here, it would be a fantastic sign for the direction of this team. But I'm no sure I can pick the Giants in D.C.