What to Watch For: New England Patriots Offense vs. Detroit Lions Defense | Week 10 2026

Guten Morgen aus Deutschland!

The NFL’s international slate of games continues on Sunday morning, as the New England Patriots (5-4) and Detroit Lions (6-2) get set for battle in Munich, Germany. New England’s previous showdowns against NFC North opponents have yielded little success, but a Detroit defense that’s prone to surrendering production to their opposition’s passing attack may be just what’s needed to bounce back. To keep pace with the Lions, the Patriots will need to rectify their recurring offensive errors and find methods to sustain production for a full 60 minutes.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when New England’s offense squares off against Detroit’s defense:

Drake Maye took an obvious step-back from a previously stellar month-plus in the Patriots’ Week 9 loss to the Green Bay Packers, but greener pastures may be on the horizon against a Lions’ defense that has been susceptible to explosive gains through the air.

Detroit’s defense has had clear strengths and weaknesses through their first eight games, but doesn’t rank favorably overall. They’re a middle of the pack unit in points per game allowed (23.6, 16th) while allowing the sixth-most total yards per game (355.0) — and the vast majority of that damage has come from opposing passers. The Lions have given up the most passing yards per game to opponents (260.9), the most passing attempts per game (39.1), and the most passing touchdowns per game (2.25).

Analytically, Detroit ranks just as poorly. They’re 29th in the NFL in defensive EPA/play (+0.05, per SūmerSports) and 21st in defensive success rate (43.7%) while ranking 28th in EPA/pass (+0.13) and 22nd in passing success rate (45.9%). The Lions have allowed the third-highest Average Depth of Target (ADoT, 9.32 yards) around the league, the eighth-highest explosive play rate (14.9%), and are tied (with the Patriots) for 24th with eight forced turnovers on the season.

In coverage, Detroit has shown a heavy preference toward running Cover 3 this season — using that zone (123 dropbacks) more than double the amount of their next-highest run shell, Cover 4 (56 dropbacks, per SūmerSports). When running Cover 3, the Lions have allowed 75 completions on 110 passing attempts (68.2% completion percentage) with 822 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, a passer rating of 84.7, and an EPA/dropback of -0.02. 

Likewise, Maye has seen Cover 3 more than any other coverage this season. And while he had difficulties against Green Bay (6-of-13, 59 yards, no touchdowns, one interception), he had been excellent against it in the first half of the regular season. In Weeks 1-8, Maye completed 51-of-75 passing attempts (68.0%) with 679 passing yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions, a passer rating of 107.6, and an EPA/dropback of +0.12 against Cover 3. 

Maye’s greatest challenge against the Detroit secondary will be similar to what he faced last week against their NFC North counterpart. The Packers were able to effectively slow Maye’s processing with frequent post-snap safety rotations — which they run at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (39.6% on the year, 47.7% of snaps against New England) — and the Lions are another in a line of opponents who incorporate that strategy regularly, rotating their safeties at the 10th-highest rate in the league (35.3%).

Detroit may implement similar strategies as their division rivals, but their lack of efficiency when running those plays presents Maye and the Patriots’ passing attack with an opportunity to overcome their previous blunders against a similar coverage structure. Even in the face of a shorthanded supporting cast, constant turnovers (19, leads the NFL), and the lack of a consistent ground game to balance with their aerial attack, New England remains one of the league’s most deadly passing offenses. 

The Patriots rank third in explosive play rate on the season (16.1%) and have generated explosive plays on 20.1% of their passing attempts (third). Maye’s 23 deep completions are tied for the league-lead — on 44 attempts, 16 fewer than Jordan Love’s 60 — while topping the NFL with nine passing touchdowns and 269 yards lost due to drops (11 drops, per Next Gen Stats). 

The lone sustainable source of offense for New England this season, Maye’s 2,501 total offensive yards account for 73.0% of the team’s total offensive yards gained through nine weeks. And even with his Week 9 hiccups, he still showcased the resilience to continue an impressive streak of success. Maye has now totaled three-plus touchdowns in six consecutive games — the second-longest in franchise history (Tom Brady, 2007, 10 games).

He’ll look to bring those highlight plays across the pond — and leave the turnovers back at home — in a matchup with a Detroit defense that has allowed opposing passers to showcase their strengths all season long.

While the Lions may be vulnerable to explosive plays downfield, they do have a clear advantage in one area against the Patriots’ passing attack: on the front line.

The calling-card of Detroit’s passing defense has been their ability to rush the passer. As a unit, they rank third in the NFL in total sacks (27) and seventh in sack rate (7.6%) while applying pressure at the seventh-highest rate (41.2%). 

The Lions have created great disruption in the backfield without sending additional rushers into the plan, blitzing at the seventh-lowest rate in the league (23.7%, per SūmerSports). Their primary four-man rush features the fifth-highest stunt rate league-wide (33.3%), with the third-most pressures (51) and second-most sacks (10) occurring when they’ve used those defensive line games.

Detroit’s pass rush is led by one of the NFL’s elite edge rushers, Aidan Hutchinson. The former No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft set a career-high with 14.5 sacks in 2025, and while those same totals have yet to come for Hutchinson, he’s still grading out as one of the best at the position in 2026. Through eight games, Hutchinson has recorded 5.0 sacks, 50 pressures (second of 110 edge rushers), 33 hurries (first), a pressure rate of 14.7%, and a pass-rush win-rate of 21.7% (first, minimum 20% of team’s pass-rush snaps) while being double-teamed on 42.8% of his snaps. His 91.7 defensive grade and 90.0 pass-rush grade rank first among all edge rushers league-wide (per PFF).

Hutchinson’s impact has been constant, and it’s been paired with a breakout season for defensive tackle Alim McNeil along the interior. McNeil’s 5.5 sacks are a team-high mark and have already set a career-best for the six-year pro. He’s added 34 pressures (second among 125 interior defensive linemen), 24 hurries (first), an 11.0% pressure rate, and a 13.7% pass-rush win-rate while being double-teamed on 61.7% of his snaps. His 80.4 defensive grade ranks fourth among interior defensive linemen in the NFL (per PFF).

New England has experienced their fair share of difficulties in containing opposing pass-rushes this season, ranking second-to-last in the league in pressure rate allowed (46.7%) while being blitzed at the 17th-highest rate (30.3%, per SūmerSports). Maye’s elusiveness and scrambling abilities have helped keep their sack numbers in-check regardless, ranking 17th in sacks taken (20) and sack rate (6.1%). 

Previously a strength for Maye, Green Bay’s high blitz-rate and constantly changing pre- and post-snap picture allowed the Packers to live in the backfield, but that wasn’t representative of his recent track record against pressure. 

In Week 9, Maye was pressured on 20 of his 43 total dropbacks in the game (46.5%, per PFF) and completed 6-of-15 passing attempts (40.0%) with 86 passing yards (5.7 yards per attempt), no touchdowns, no interceptions, four sacks, and a passer rating of 59.3. He was also blitzed on 20 dropbacks (46.5%), and completed 6-of-16 passing attempts (37.5%) with 61 passing yards (3.8 yards per attempt), no touchdowns, one interception, three sacks, and a passer rating of 50.8. 

In the five games prior to the Green Bay loss, Maye had completed 35-of-57 passing attempts (61.4%) with 489 yards (8.6 yards per attempt), six touchdowns, no interceptions, a passer rating of 124.1, an EPA/play of +0.20, and NFL-best 90.7 offensive grade (per PFF) when under pressure. Against the blitz, Maye completed 41-of-61 passing attempts (67.2%) with 688 yards (11.3 yards per attempt), seven touchdowns, one interception, a passer rating of 136.5, an EPA/play of +0.40, and a league-best 91.6 offensive grade.

Now facing an opponent who hasn’t traditionally brought additional rushers into the pass-rush plan, Maye’s affinity for extending plays and creating outside of the offense’s designed structure will return — and his performance against pressure is likely to progress back to the mean as a result. 

While the Lions have fielded one of the NFL’s worst defenses against the pass, the Patriots may still want to work their aerial attack from the inside out in Munich.

Regardless of the availability of their top perimeter targets, New England will have a clear advantage when targeting their tight ends on Sunday morning. Detroit has been one of the NFL’s worst at slowing the production of opposing tight ends this season, allowing the second-most targets (86) and receptions (64) to the position, while surrendering the most yards (704) and touchdowns (11). 

That places both Hunter Henry and Eli Raridon in an especially favorable matchup — and it’s one that Maye has been very comfortable exploiting when given the chance. On the year, Henry leads all Patriots’ pass-catchers in receptions (32), ranks second in targets (37) and yards (361), and is tied for third with two touchdowns. Raridon’s efficiency has slowed in recent weeks, but he’s still seen increased involvement. He’s currently tied for fourth on the team in targets (26), and ranks sixth in receptions (16) and receiving yards (225) with two touchdowns. Both Henry (66%) and Raridon (51%) have played more than half of New England’s total offensive snaps on the season, often used in tandem in 12 personnel packages (23.7%, 16th), or interchangeably in 11 personnel (60.0%, 12th).

When the Patriots do look to attack the perimeter, they can expect continued contributions from DeMario Douglas and Efton Chism III, a resurgence from Mack Hollins, and the potential re-introduction of A.J. Brown. 

Douglas’ weekly workload has finally found level ground, asserting himself as the de facto number-one option for Maye at wide receiver in lieu of Brown and Romeo Doubs’ injuries. After leading the team with 76 receiving yards in Week 8 and setting a career-high with 102 receiving yards in Week 9, Douglas has amassed more targets (46), receiving yards (434), and touchdowns (four, career-best single-season mark) than any other Patriot, and ranks second behind Henry in receptions (31). His 59% snap share also leads all New England wide receivers amidst their injury woes.

Quietly working his way into a more significant role in the offense, Chism’s 48% snap share is second in the wide receiver room. A versatile piece that can fill a wide array of needs — from the boundary, to the slot, and an in-line blocker on the line of scrimmage — Chism’s 20 receptions also rank second behind Douglas in the wide receiver room. He’s been efficient with those looks, only being targeted 24 times (sixth) with 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns on the year.

Sans Brown and Doubs, the Patriots have been sorely lacking a true perimeter threat in recent weeks, but just got a trusted target back with the activation of Hollins. At the time of his departure, Hollins ranked as New England’s leading receiver in targets (20), receptions (15), and yards (209) — a trusted target for Maye in the passing game with a large frame, wide catch radius, and dependable hands. In his first game back from injury, he was targeted six times and recorded three receptions with 36 receiving yards and a touchdown — his first of the season.

Adding Brown into the lineup against the Lions would be another boost to the outside passing game, and if nothing else, free up other receivers to operate in more one-on-one matchups in space. Brown’s early tenure with the Patriots has yielded little in terms of production (nine catches on 20 targets, 101 yards), but opposing defenses have continued to show him the respect he commands as a top-option when available. He’d draw the help of Detroit’s safeties over-the-top, opening avenues in the middle of the field for New England’s other pass-catchers. And with him active, there would also be the chance he pops as an explosive receiving threat — although that’s yet to be seen in his three games played.

The Patriots’ backfield rotation experienced a major shake-up this week and now faces a Lions’ defense that’s allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game across the NFL (94.1), and yet, there may be reason for optimism entering Week 10.

Rhamondre Stevenson — who was initially thought to be going on the shelf with a plantaris tendon injury in the back of his right knee — practiced throughout the week, but his game day availability, and the role he would have if active, is still very much in question. Already without TreVeyon Henderson (illness), New England will likely lean on Corey Kiner and Lan Larison for the bulk of their backfield production. 

Kiner would serve as the lead back, and he’s been one of the Patriots’ more undervalued offensive contributors on the season. He’s already led the team in rushing yards in three separate games, and found the end zone for the first time in his career in Week 9. In nine games, he’s totaled 50 carries, ranks second on the team with 244 rushing yards (4.9 yards per carry, a team-best mark), and has scored one rushing touchdown. 

Analytically, Kiner also ranks favorably in comparison to the rest of New England’s running backs. His -0.11 EPA/rush is 32nd in the NFL among running backs with at least 50 touches and second on the team behind Stevenson’s -0.07 (21st in the league), but Kiner leads the Patriots backfield and ranks 13th in the NFL with a 44.0% rushing success rate. His stellar yards-per-carry average (4.9) is good for ninth in the league using the same parameters, and his 2.98 yards after contact per-rush also tops New England’s running back rotation (23rd in the league).

Those numbers show potential for even greater results with a larger workload, and that’s exactly what Kiner is going to get against Detroit. 

While the Lions have been one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses in total rushing yards allowed per-game, they’ve done so while facing the third-fewest carries per game (23.0). Their 4.1 yards per rush allowed is the 15th-highest in the NFL, and analytically, they rank 19th in the league in defensive EPA/rush (-0.08, per SūmerSports). 

Detroit’s 39.7% success rate against opposing rushing attempts ranks more favorably (11th), as does their 23.5% stuff-rate (ninth), but they’ve allowed explosive runs on 12.5% of opposing rushing attempts — the sixth-highest mark in the NFL (per PFF) — and rank second-to-last in yards allowed before contact per carry (1.98). 

The Lions’ low-total rushing yards allowed per game has been driven solely by their inability to reliably defend against the pass, and their opponents’ eagerness to exploit that defensive weakness. The Patriots will likely be another in a line of teams that will look to do just that, but have also been in dire need of a spark on the ground to establish better balance and reduce the hefty burden Maye carries on a weekly basis. 

Even if Kiner is their top option in the running back room, Detroit presents an opportunity for New England’s rushing attack to re-invent themselves as a more stable source of production.

The Patriots’ offense and Lions’ defense will each be forced to work around several significant injuries on Sunday morning.

New England ruled Ben Brown (knee) and TreVeyon Henderson (illness) out at the beginning of the week, with numerous others listed on the injury report. Cameron Latu (back), Walter Rouse (concussion protocol), Rhamondre Stevenson (knee), and A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) were all listed as questionable after logging limited participation during practice. 

Reggie Gilliam (knee) and Greg Van Roten (hamstring) were each designated to return from injured reserve, but have not yet been activated to the 53-man roster. Even if Rouse is able to clear concussion protocol, Van Roten would likely be the team’s choice to start at left guard, if healthy. He was a full participant in practice on Friday and his status should be monitored as pre-game roster moves are made later in the day. If neither can suit up, Andrew Rupcich or Xavier Newman-Johnson would likely be elevated from the practice squad to fill-in.

Hunter Henry (foot), Morgan Moses (foot), and Drake Maye (right shoulder) were also listed on the Patriots’ injury report during the week, but carry no game day status.

Detroit ruled out two players ahead of game day: safety Kerby Joseph (knee) and cornerback D.J. Reed (hip). Joseph was a limited participant on Wednesday, practiced in full on Thursday, but did not partake in Friday’s session. Reed did not practice all week for the Lions. Safety Brian Branch (hip) and edge rusher D.J. Wonnum (concussion protocol) were also listed on the team’s injury report, but carry no injury designation into the weekend.

New England’s greatest offensive strengths align well with Detroit’s defensive weakness: the passing attack. Another herculean effort may be required of Maye to keep pace with the Lions on the scoreboard in this game, but the Patriots will need to have a better showing in the turnover department if that’s going to be the result. Detroit is prone to allowing opposing quarterbacks to pick them apart downfield, but New England has gotten in their own way on several occasions this season. That can’t happen again if they’re to escape Munich with their first victory over the NFC North this season. 

What will you be watching for when the Patriots’ offense lines up across from the Lions’ defense on Sunday morning? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

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