What to Watch For: New England Patriots Offense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Defense | Week 3 2026

Return of the road warriors?

Following the New England Patriots’ (1-1) home-opening victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, 20-3, New England takes to the road for two consecutive matchups against AFC contenders. First up is an early-season trip down to Florida, where the reigning AFC South-champion Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) await. We’ve previously discussed the challenges that Jacksonville’s high-powered offense will present; now, we flip sides and examine how Drake Maye and the Patriots’ offense can look to right the ship against an eerily familiar defensive scheme for the Jaguars.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when the New England offense lines up against the Jacksonville defense:

When the action kicks off on Sunday afternoon, Drake Maye will once again face a defense that specializes in many of the defensive tactics that have slowed his production and dampened his efficiency over his last six outings. 

The Jaguars’ defense, led by defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, have run a coverage scheme that closely mirrors that of the Seattle Seahawks since taking over the reins at the onset of the 2025 season. Much like Seattle, Jacksonville has used Cover 3 (314 snaps) as a base coverage, with Cover 6 (173 snaps) most frequently used as a change-up (per SūmerSports). In the same time frame, only the Seahawks (209 snaps) have run Cover 6 at a higher frequency around the NFL. While Seattle’s -0.182 EPA/dropback in Cover 3 is far more detrimental to offensive success than Jacksonville’s (-0.079), the Jaguars’ (-0.086) boast a more favorable defensive EPA/dropback than the Seahawks’ -0.026. 

In the 2025 regular season, Maye ranked 30th in the NFL in EPA/dropback against Cover 6 (+0.029) — a stark contrast from his league-leading EPA/dropback of +0.313 against all other defensive coverage shells. In the 2025 postseason, Maye’s struggles against Cover 6 were amplified. He completed 8-of-16 passing attempts with 100 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and an EPA/play of +0.03 from the Wild Card round through the AFC Championship Game, and Seattle used that to create a gameplan for stopping him in Super Bowl LX and the 2026 regular season opener.

Across two games versus the Seahawks, Maye faced Cover 6 on 40 dropbacks and completed 27 passes for 310 yards, but only threw one touchdown to three interceptions and held an EPA/play of -0.05. We’ve previously broken down Seattle’s called coverages against Maye as a potential blueprint for the rest of the league, and if one team were to model a similar gameplan after the Seahawks, it would be Jacksonville.

A saving grace for Maye in this game, and a reason for optimism, is how the Jaguars have traditionally dressed-up those looks. While Jacksonville tied Seattle for second in the NFL in defensive EPA/play (-0.15) in 2025, they did so with a much more straight forward approach. The Seahawks rotated their safeties post-snap on 41.0% of plays, presenting two-high safeties then rotating to single-high, and vice versa, at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. The Jaguars, however, only rotated their safeties post-snap on 26.6% of dropbacks in 2025 — the eighth-lowest rate in the league.

In 2026, Jacksonville has doubled-down on that approach. Through two games, the Jaguars have rotated their safeties on just 18.0% of dropbacks — the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Unlike his contests against Seattle, Maye can be relatively confident that what he sees pre-snap will be what the defense gives him post-snap, expediting the time it takes for him to read the field and pick apart the coverage.

Thus far, opposing quarterbacks have found success against Jacksonville with the same mindset. The Jaguars have allowed the fifth-highest completion percentage in the league (71.7%), the second-highest yards per attempt (9.3), and the third-highest Average Depth of Target (ADoT, 9.76 yards) in 2026. They rank 21st in success rate against the pass (46.6%) and passing yards against (493), and are last in the NFL in contested target rate (3.9%).

Jacksonville may run a similar scheme to the Seahawks, but don’t have the personnel to execute it with great results. If Maye were to overcome his past demons against those coverage shells, this could be the game for him to do so.

A bounce back game from Maye would also require a more efficient performance from the Patriots’ receiving corps, which will be heavily featured due to the uncertainty surrounding rookie tight end Eli Raridon’s game day availability.

With more 11 personnel likely in the gameplan, the Jaguars will match with one of the NFL’s highest rates of dime (six defensive backs; 15.7%, fifth in the league), but any of those players can be on the wrong-end of a coverage bust if offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ can continue to scheme his playmakers open. 

Cornerbacks Travis Hunter (54.6 defensive grade, 62nd of 89 cornerbacks, per PFF), Montaric Brown (56.4 defensive grade, 55th), Jourdan Lewis (52.7 defensive grade, 64th), and Jarrian Jones (41.5 defensive grade, 85th) have all experienced early-season growing pains in coverage, presenting an opportunity for New England’s receivers to get back on-track after two difficult showings to open the year.

That will hold especially true for de facto top option Romeo Doubs, who began to find more solid ground in Week 2 after a difficult season-opener saw him record no receptions on three targets with one drop and an interception. Against Pittsburgh, Doubs led Patriots’ receivers with three receptions on four targets and 96 yards, but had one fumble on the sideline and dropped a 3rd-and-9 slant. 

Doubs’ two highlight catches — a 29-yard reception and a 63-yard reception in the third quarter — were explosive plays that came when Maye was rolling to his right outside of the pocket, but the duo’s chemistry within the structure of plays has yet to produce consistently positive results. Still, his target-share jumped from 9.4% to 20.0% without A.J. Brown on the field, and he’s likely to be on the receiving end of even more Maye downfield shots in the coming weeks. Sunday could be a major step in his developing rapport with the quarterback.

More production should also be expected from DeMario Douglas in the slot. Last year, Maye leaned on Stefon Diggs inside when the Patriots were in 11 personnel — to the tune of 85 receptions on 102 targets (83.3% catch rate, first in the NFL), 1,013 receiving yards (11.9 yards per reception), and four touchdowns. Through two games in 2026, Douglas has produced six catches on nine targets and 29 receiving yards, but only caught one pass for nine yards in Week 2 on the game’s opening drive. He’ll need to show that he can provide a similar outlet for Maye to turn to on underneath throws when the defense takes away the deep ball. After another strong summer, that’s yet to translate to the game field.

Contributions from Hunter Henry can be expected on a weekly basis, while anything Mack Hollins or Kyle Williams provide would be icing on the cake. New England needs to get their top options on the outside in-rhythm with Maye.

Supplementing Maye and the passing game’s efficiency will start with establishing a clear presence on the ground, something that New England began to do more effectively in Week 2 with the return of TreVeyon Henderson.

After an opening drive fumble by Rhamondre Stevenson, Henderson took over the lion’s share of the backfield reps for the remainder of the first half against the Steelers — and hit pay dirt with a 39-yard touchdown run to begin the scoring in the first quarter. By the game’s end, the Patriots’ box score numbers looked much more promising: 28 rushes, 136 yards, a 4.9 yards per carry average, and one touchdown. 

But those numbers don’t tell the entire story for an offense that had trouble establishing a tone at the point of attack.

Stevenson bounced back from his early-game fumble with a 24-yard rush in the third quarter and finished the game with six carries and 43 yards rushing. Henderson finished the game with 16 carries, 76 rushing yards, and the touchdown scamper, but aside from his explosive touchdown run, he totaled 15 carries for 37 yards (2.5 yards per carry). That mirrored his production trends from his rookie campaign, when he tallied 361 yards (39.6% of his total rushing yardage, third in the NFL) on “breakaway runs” of 10-plus yards, but his yards per carry average dipped to just 3.23 without those included in his total. 

Through the first two weeks of the regular season, the Patriots rank 13th in the NFL in EPA/rush (-0.05), 16th in rushing success rate (42.4%), and 15th in yards per carry (4.15). The majority of their gains have come after contact (166 yards, 10th), while they rank 14th in the league in yards before contact (79). Their middling rushing attack has seen the 10th-lowest percentage of heavy-box looks around the NFL at just 20.8%, but they’ve yet to consistently take advantage of defenses spreading out to stop the pass.

Much like New England offensively, Jacksonville’s defense ranks near the middle of the pack in stopping opponents’ ground games, but is trending toward being a fringe top-10 unit. Their -0.09 EPA/rush is 16th in the NFL, while their 36.0% success rate against the run is 10th. The Jaguars have given up 191 rushing yards (12th) and 3.82 yards per carry (10th), and have “stuffed” 23.4% of rushing attempts against (13th).

The Patriots will need to work around defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton (72.2 run defense grade, 13th of 122 defensive tackles) and linebacker Ventrell Miller (team-high 17 tackles; 91.1 overall defensive grade, first of 71 linebackers) to establish themselves on the ground, but may have more success working over defensive tackle Arik Armstead (31.6 defensive grade, 113th of 122 defensive tackles) when doing so.

Jacksonville’s run defense is trending in the right direction, and so is New England’s rushing attack. The team that can continue finding success in that area may determine the outcome of this game. For the Patriots, winning in that area will be determined by an improved performance from the offensive line — and that may be a more difficult battle to overcome.

New England’s offensive success by air or land will be predicated on a much better showing from the offensive line. They’ll have to do so without a key piece in the equation, and against a much more multiple defensive front.

After suffering a broken ankle against Pittsburgh in Week 2, the Patriots placed longtime reliable starting right guard Mike Onwenu on injured reserve — likely ending his 2026 campaign and calling into question the impending free agent’s future in Foxboro. His replacement, Greg Van Roten, was a full-time starter in each of his last three seasons with the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders, but didn’t perform up to that standard last week.

On 40 blocking snaps in relief of Onwenu at right guard against the Steelers, Van Roten allowed two quarterback pressures — one of which resulted in Maye’s third quarter interception — and posted an overall grade of 25.9, a run blocking grade of 27.1, and a pass blocking grade of 39.5 in his first extended live action with the team. 

Next to Van Roten at center was second-year starter Jared Wilson, who posted an offensive grade of 51.3 and run blocking grade of 70.5, but his astounding 4.0 (not a typo, but a questionable mark in PFF’s often lauded grading system) pass blocking grade was an obvious team-low. He accounted for four pressures, three hurries, and one quarterback hit against Pittsburgh, generating a post-game reaction from head coach Mike Vrabel, who commented:

"I don't think that was one of Jared's better games yesterday. I think he can protect better. I know he can protect better. I've seen him protect better."

Wilson and Van Roten will both need to put out better tape against the Jaguars on Sunday for New England to sustain offensive success. Thus far, Jacksonville has generated pressures on 41.0% of quarterback dropbacks (11th in the NFL), while blitzing at a 31.1% clip (12th). They may not produce the eye-popping numbers or have the same high-end talent that the Patriots previous two opponents did, but their frequent change-ups and multiplicity along the front-seven is sure to keep New England guessing.

Mixing up their post-snap rush plans, they’ve rushed just three players at a league-high 8.2% rate, dropping eight players into coverage in an attempt to take away underneath throws and force opposing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball. The Jaguars have also rushed six-plus players at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (9.8%), but haven’t had much success in doing so with Campanile running their unit. In 2025, Jacksonville allowed 12 touchdowns on 33 snaps of Cover 0.

In 2025, Jacksonville struggled to wrangle-up opposing quarterbacks and running backs in the backfield. Their 32 sacks ranked 27th and 77 tackles for loss ranked 19th, but that looks to be changing in 2026. Through two games, the Jaguars 8.2% sack rate is seventh-best in the NFL. The duo of 2019 seventh-overall pick Josh Hines-Allen (69.3 defensive grade, 37th of 107 edge rushers) and 2022 first-overall pick Travon Walker (70.6 defensive grade, 30th) have led the way with 1.5 sacks each. Last year, Hines-Allen finished with a team-high 8.0 sacks, while Walker wrapped up the regular season second on the team with 5.5 sacks.

Starting tackles Will Campbell and Morgan Moses will have their hands full with Hines-Allen and Walker, but a clear jump from Campbell in year-two has been reason for optimism. Of all qualifying left tackles in the NFL, Campbell’s 81.4 pass blocking grade and 94.2% pass-block win-rate are good for fourth-best in the league, while his 97.1 pass blocking efficiency rating is seventh-best. Campbell’s island win-rate (no help from chipping running backs or tight ends) of 97.1% is second overall among all NFL left tackles, and he’s recorded the fifth-lowest pressure rate (6.3%) of the group.

The Jaguars are sure to change up their pressure looks throughout the course of the game, but the Patriots’ sturdy edges should be able to hold firm. New England will need to find ways to help their interior offensive linemen and contain blitzing linebackers from the second-level to give Maye time to operate and the running backs space to work upfield, but the battle at the line of scrimmage is one they should be able to control.

As is the case with Jacksonville’s offense, the Jaguars' defense enters Sunday with a more promising bill of health.

Rookie defensive tackle Albert Regis (elbow) carries a doubtful tag after being added to the injury report as a limited participant on Friday, but he stands alone as the only player on Jacksonville’s roster with an injury designation. Jaguars' cornerback Christian Braswell (knee), linebacker Branson Combs (personal), and defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton (back) all missed time this week, but look ready to go against the Patriots.

For New England, rookie tight end Eli Raridon (thigh) was a limited participant on Wednesday, but was downgraded with two “did not participates” (DNPs) on Thursday and Friday, and carries a questionable injury designation into Sunday. Patriots' o0ffensive tackles Dametrious Crownover (knee) and Morgan Moses (foot), and fullback Reggie Gilliam (knee) were also limited during the week, but carry no injury designation for game day.

New England came down to earth in their first road game of the 2026 season after finishing 2025 a perfect 9-0 away from Gillette Stadium. From the battle in the trenches to establishing a presence on the ground, a much cleaner showing from Drake Maye against coverages that have spelled trouble and more consistent production from his committee of pass-catching options out wide, a win on Sunday and the return of the “road warriors” will require a collective effort. Jacksonville is sure to give the Foxboro faithful all they can handle — how they respond will be a turning point for not only this game’s result, but the outlook for the team moving forward through the fall.

What will you be watching for when the Patriots’ offense lines up across from the Jaguars’ defense? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

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Recent Articles:

- What to Watch For: New England Patriots Defense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Offense | Week 3 2026

- Jaguars’ Defense Could Spell Trouble for Drake Maye and Patriots’ Offense

- Patriots’ Romeo Doubs Showed Improvement, But More Is Needed As Top Receiving Option

- Defensive Scheme Analysis: New England Patriots Beginning 2026 Season on Historic Pace

- All-22 Review: Henderson Breaks Free, Defense Dominates in Patriots’ Win Over Steelers

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