3 White Sox Hot Takes for the 2026 Season

Hot takes. We all have them. We might share them with a buddy in confidence, but rarely do we risk being so loud — and so wrong — that we take them public.

I’m going to do it anyway.

It’s part of the necessary evil of the MLB offseason.

Baseball is wildly unpredictable. Every year, we get storylines that no one saw coming — teams, players, and moments that defy expectations in both directions. Naturally, fans and media members try to get ahead of the curve and guess what’s coming next.

Chicago White Sox fans are no exception. The South Side has lived through more than its share of surprises over the past few years.

So what’s next for the Sox in 2026? What’s next for this phase of the rebuild? Who becomes a star, who disappoints, and how close is this team to real contention?

I've already gone through my "New Year's Resolutions" for the team — my goals for how I want to see them grow and what I want them to achieve. But what I actually think and predict is a completely different story. 

Here goes nothing. Three hot takes about the 2026 Chicago White Sox.

Early odds at BetMGM list Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Trey Yesavage as the favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year in 2026 at +200. Right behind him are two Japanese stars: Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai and White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami.

Other top names in the mix include Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle, Baltimore’s Samuel Basallo, and Cleveland’s Chase DeLauter.

That’s a strong field. But I’m betting on Murakami.

A lot of the baseball world is skeptical about how his bat will translate. The concern is that his contact profile won’t let him get to his power in Major League Baseball.

I think those worries are overblown.

Nippon Professional Baseball is full of splitters, off-speed arsenals, and pitchers who live at the bottom of the zone to induce chase and ground balls. Hitters train to handle that style. MLB, on the other hand, emphasizes velocity — and Murakami will now have an entire offseason designed to prepare for that exact environment.

When asked about his swing during his introductory press conference with the White Sox, Murakami postponed answering the question until Spring Training. Because he knows that he'll be making some adjustments over the course of the offseason as he works with Chicago's staff. 

At the end of the day, this is one of the most prolific hitters on the planet, regardless of league. And I’m confident he’ll adjust.

Murakami's arrival in Chicago feels a lot like José Abreu’s did. Everyone knew how good Abreu was in Cuba, but nobody knew exactly how it would translate. Then 2014 happened, and it was obvious immediately that the White Sox had a star.

Between Murakami’s elite power and the tape-measure shots that will light up highlight reels, I think he wins over voters and takes home AL Rookie of the Year in 2026.

Maybe it won’t be the 2023 version of Luis Robert Jr. — the 38-home-run, All-Star, MVP-candidate version. That might be asking too much.

But I have a gut feeling that Robert bounces back in 2026 and becomes a legitimately good offensive player again, paired with his elite defense and baserunning in center field.

Maybe it’s the flashes we saw in the second half of 2025 before he went back on the IL. Maybe it’s the lineup protection he’ll finally have with Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, and Kyle Teel around him.

One thing that gets forgotten is how little support Robert has had the past two seasons. When Eloy Jiménez, Yoán Moncada, and Jake Burger were hitting productively around him in 2023, he thrived.

And now he’ll be playing on a young, energetic, low-pressure team.

It’s hard to stay motivated on a 41–121 club. It’s even harder when the lineup includes Jacob Amaya, Nick Maton, and Josh Rojas in 2025. That’s not exactly inspiring baseball.

But when the kids came up in the second half and started winning, Robert looked a lot more like himself. I think that spark carries into 2026 more than people expect.

Maybe that leads to a midseason trade and a big prospect haul. Maybe it doesn’t. Either way, I think we’re going to see a much better version of Luis Robert Jr. this season, and that will be overall win for the White Sox organization. 

Yes, I know what you’re thinking.

“Sam, if Murakami wins Rookie of the Year and Robert bounces back, how can this team possibly miss 70 wins?”

I get it. I’ve seen the optimism online — some fans even predicting 75 wins or more.

I just don’t think this team is there yet. Neither does Vegas.

This is a better team than the 2025 version. But I also think regression is inevitable in some places, and the pitching staff still scares me.

Let’s not forget how much went right on the pitching side of things in 2025. Shane Smith came out of nowhere with an All-Star caliber season. Martin Pérez gave the White Sox 11 strong starts. Adrian Houser gave them 11 unbelievable ones.

Even with all that, the pitching still wasn’t good enough. When the offense clicked in the second half, the Sox were still lucky to play .500 baseball because they simply didn’t have enough arms.

And how much better is that group right now?

Smith repeating 2025 would be a massive win — but it’s also possible he takes a small step back just from batted-ball luck alone. Davis Martin is solid, but he probably is what he is at this point in his career.

Sean Burke pitched well, but his 4.96 expected ERA suggests regression from his 4.22 actual mark. The advanced metrics are pretty hard to ignore here.

And then what? Anthony Kay is a nice pickup, but is he going to replace what Pérez and Houser gave you combined? Because that’s the production Chicago lost.

Maybe another starter comes. In fact, I'd consider it a pretty egregious oversight if they didn't sign another legitimate starter. But as things stand right now, the rotation isn’t meaningfully better. The bullpen may not be either — and that matters more than people realize.

I think the White Sox improve. I just don’t think they jump another 10-plus wins with this current roster. 

I see this team around 67–68 wins — progress, but not quite the breakout season many fans are expecting.

There you have it. Three hot takes for the 2026 Chicago White Sox as we sit here in mid-January. Some good and some bad. 

These could change as the offseason plays out. But if I’m going against the grain, these are the bold predictions I feel best about right now.