Cubs Star Pete Crow-Armstrong Falls Behind in NL MVP Race

There's an argument to be made that Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong should be the NL MVP for the 2026 season.

PCA currently leads all players in baseball with 7.7 fWAR in 2026. He single-handedly carried Chicago's offense for multiple months during the summer, and he's just two home runs away from eclipsing another 30-30 season, this time with a career-high OPS north of .900.

It will always be difficult to unseat Shohei Ohtani. But every year during award season, we see fatigue begin to set in when it comes to a perennial MVP like Ohtani, who has won the award (both AL and NL) in four of the last five seasons, with a runner-up finish in 2022 when Aaron Judge hit 62 home runs for the New York Yankees.

Generally, it is my belief that baseball writers with MVP votes would look for a reason to give the award to anyone but Ohtani. Who's the new hot name? The new storyline in baseball? The next player who deserves to be awarded for their great season with some hardware? And in 2026, that's Pete Crow-Armstrong.

It's a tight race that could come down to the wire, and ultimately might be impacted by whether or not the Chicago Cubs are able to run down the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central title.

Early MVP discussions have already started to create discourse among baseball fans and media members about the true value of a stat like fWAR.

And on many betting markets, as of a few days ago, PCA had overtaken Ohtani as the betting favorite for the MVP award, with just over one month remaining in the 2026 MLB season. But truthfully, PCA strongly cannot afford a slump like the one he's currently suffering through, and perhaps coming out of.

Over his last eight games, PCA is 4-for-36, with a .111 batting average. His OPS has dipped more than 30 points in that stretch, from .937 down to .906.

As of Wednesday, August 12, at 7 p.m., a betting market like Kalshi gave Pete Crow-Armstrong a 52.8% chance to win the NL MVP award, compared to a 46.3% chance for Shohei Ohtani.

After the recent slump, PCA has dropped down to 40%, while Ohtani has become the runaway favorite at 58%. There's still a lot of baseball left and an opportunity for Crow-Armstrong to swing the odds back into his favor. But it goes to show how essential every stretch will be for PCA the rest of the way.

He'll be fine. He always is. But it's important for the MVP race that this stretch isn't all that prolonged. Ohtani's last eight games haven't been magnificent either. He's hitting .219 with a .680 OPS. But in order to win NL MVP, I think Crow-Armstrong needs to finish right in line with Shohei Ohtani in the offensive categories that hold the most weight.

It's going to be hard to deny the value Ohtani has brought to the Dodgers with 85.2 innings of a 1.79 ERA in 2026. That's 14 starts and nearly half a season of elite starting pitching. You can make a case for PCA's defense to be just as valuable, but that argument diminishes significantly if Ohtani is also outpacing him in home runs, RBIs, and OPS by a wide margin.

As of right now, PCA has one more home run on the 2026 season. Both players have exactly 75 RBIs. And the difference in OPS is marginal, with PCA sitting at .906 after the recent slump and Ohtani at .928.

But the Cubs center fielder will need to heat back up and keep pace with one of the best hitters the sport has ever seen to win the award. And that starts with breaking out of the current slump he's in.