After a wild weekend in Bristol, which included a win for Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson lead the field with seven races to go in The Chase
1. Denny Hamlin – -1
This might be a hot take, but even after losing the points lead to Kyle Larson, Hamlin still has the best shot at the title. He has the best team, the best car, and the best manufacturer. The tracks ahead, including Kansas this weekend, are favorable for him. Being one point behind isn’t the end of the world, but he needs to start showing the dominance we saw in the regular season again.
2. Kyle Larson – 2,206
Followed up the St. Louis win with a second-place finish at Bristol. Larson is clearly the hottest driver in the series right now. The wins and strong runs are stacking up. He still needs a few more victories to fully prove this is his year to take the title back-to-back, but the momentum is real.
3. Joey Logano – -16
Even-year Logano is back in the conversation after getting his third win of the season at Bristol. Ford is noticeably faster than it was earlier in the year. Some of the upcoming tracks haven’t been kind to Penske in the past, so they’ll need to keep the speed they’ve found.
4. Christopher Bell – -17
The Darlington win felt like a breakthrough, but the team hasn’t been back to Victory Lane since. They clearly have speed. They just need to turn more of these solid runs into actual wins if Bell wants to stay in the real title fight.
5. Ty Gibbs – -42 (+2)
A top-five at Bristol, one of his better tracks, was a good step. The 18th at St. Louis still left him with work to do. The next stretch of intermediate tracks will be a real test for how much progress this team has actually made.
6. Carson Hocevar – -85 (+3)
He probably should have won at Bristol if he hadn’t gotten caught up messing with Ty Gibbs. Still finished third and got the better of Ryan Blaney in the process. Hocevar hasn’t faded away like some expected. He’s still making noise.
7. Ryan Blaney – -52 (-2)
A 35th-place finish and a physical beating at Bristol is about as rough as it gets. That’s a nightmare night. Blaney isn’t out of it yet, but he needs to find some mojo again in a hurry.
8. Tyler Reddick – -61 (-2)
Back-to-back finishes of 25th and 18th are not championship form. This version of the No. 45 looks nothing like the team that won five races earlier in the season. The good news is they’re heading to Kansas, a track Reddick already won at this year.
9. Bubba Wallace – -92 (+2)
Quietly solid to start The Chase with nothing worse than 14th. Kansas is one of his better tracks, so this is a spot where he needs to cash in and start making up real ground.
10. Chase Briscoe – -87 (-2)
A 32nd and a DNF at Bristol was the opposite of what he needed. Briscoe has had speed most of the year but still can’t close. At this point his realistic championship chances have pretty much vanished.
11. Chase Elliott – -117 (-1)
Finishes of 31st and 23rd in back-to-back weeks are brutal when you’re trying to contend. Elliott and teammate Larson are living in completely different worlds right now. It might already be a “see you next year” situation for the No. 9.
12. Austin Cindric – -116
Tenth and 11th in the last two races is respectable but not title contention material. Cindric is going to have a lot to prove next season if he wants to hold onto this seat long-term.
13. William Byron – -121 (+1)
Fourth and ninth since the disaster at Darlington show improvement. The results are better, but the hole is still too deep for this to turn into a championship run.
14. Ryan Preece – -124 (-1)
A 10th at Bristol is a solid day. He’s not winning the title, but this has already been a career year with the first win and a postseason berth.
15. Chris Buescher – -124
A 13th at Bristol wasn’t bad, and he has a strong record at Kansas (including a second in the closest finish ever back in 2024). Still, this season has felt incomplete. Ford struggled early and Buescher never really contended for wins.
16. Daniel Suárez – -134
A 14th at Bristol was decent. Winning the Coke 600 and making The Chase already made the year a success. It’s hard to see it getting much better from here.
Kansas has a way of rewarding cars with speed and drivers who can manage a long run. The next couple weeks will keep thinning out the real contenders from the rest of the field.
