After a wild weekend in St. Louis which included a win from defending champion Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin is hanging on to a slim lead with eight races to go
Here’s my updated look at the 16 drivers in The Chase after St. Louis and heading into Bristol. Rankings are based on momentum and actual chances to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship, not just the current points standings. Two races in and the field is already starting to separate.
1. Denny Hamlin – 2,168 points
An 18th and a 9th to open The Chase isn’t the start he wanted, and watching his lead shrink from 25 points down to 9 has to sting. Still, he has the best team, the best car, and the best manufacturer. Bristol and Kansas are both solid tracks for him. Until someone takes it from him, he’s still the guy to beat.
2. Kyle Larson – -9 (+6 from previous week)
They didn’t have the fastest car at St. Louis, but they found a way to win anyway. That’s what champions do. The speed is coming, and if Cliff Daniels keeps making the right calls at the right time, this team can make up ground in a hurry. Getting that first win of the season was the first monkey off their back. Now they need more.
3. Joey Logano – -51 (+4)
Back-to-back top-10s is a clean start. The problem is they had the fastest car at St. Louis and still finished third. That’s a missed opportunity. The speed is clearly there, but the points deficit is real. Logano needs to start cashing in these strong runs.
4. Christopher Bell – -18 (-1 from previous week)
Following up the Darlington win with a 19th at St. Louis wasn’t ideal. At the same time, if that’s his “bad week” and he only lost six points to the lead, you’ll take it. The win at Darlington proved the speed is real. He just has to stay consistent now.
5. Ryan Blaney – -33 (-3)
Brake rotor issues wrecked his day at St. Louis more than anything else, though 14 stage points helped limit the damage. Like his teammate, this felt like a missed chance at a track Penske usually hits well. Blaney needs a response, and Bristol could be the spot.
6. Tyler Reddick – -42 (-2)
Not the afternoon he wanted in St. Louis, but he still came in with back-to-back third-place finishes before that. A solid day at Bristol followed by a big effort at Kansas — a track he dominated earlier this year — would get him right back in the mix.
7. Ty Gibbs – -51 (-2)
An 18th at Gateway after finishing second at Darlington was a step backward. Bristol is where he got his first career win earlier this year, and he basically needs another big run here to keep pace. The gap isn’t impossible, but it’s getting harder to ignore.
8. Chase Briscoe – -59 (-2)
Getting taken out by Chase Elliott and finishing 32nd hurt. Even the sixth-place run at Darlington felt like a missed chance at one of his better tracks. He’s still technically in it, but he needs a statement race soon before the deficit gets out of hand.
9. Carson Hocevar – -88 (+3)
Quietly solid with an 11th and an 8th to open The Chase, plus some laps led. He’s stayed out of trouble with Brad Keselowski so far, which is its own win. Chevrolet is showing more speed overall, and Hocevar is one of the drivers taking advantage.
10. Chase Elliott – -93 (-1)
A 31st at St. Louis was rough. He still has two wins on the year and more raw talent than most of the bottom half of this field. If the improved Chevy speed starts showing up in the No. 9, Elliott has the ability to climb. Right now he’s stuck in neutral.
11. Bubba Wallace – -90 (-1)
An 8th and a 14th is a perfectly fine way to start the postseason. The problem is he needs more than fine. Kansas and Talladega are the tracks where he has to make up real ground if he wants to stay relevant.
12. Austin Cindric – -108 (+3)
A 13th and a 10th keep him afloat, but until he starts running up front and competing for wins, he’s mostly a non-factor in the title picture.
13. Ryan Preece – -113 (-2)
The high of the Daytona win has cooled off with a 10th at Darlington and 17th at Gateway. It was still a career year just getting that first victory and making The Chase. The climb from here looks steep.
14. William Byron – -114 (+2)
Strong response to the Darlington DNF with a fourth-place finish at St. Louis. Hendrick is finding speed again. Byron needs to turn that into wins if he’s going to make up the kind of ground he’s facing.
15. Chris Buescher – -111 (-1)
A 20th and a 27th to open The Chase is brutal. If you haven’t noticed the No. 17 on the track much lately, you’re not alone. This season is basically over for them as a title threat.
16. Daniel Suárez – -119 (-3)
A 21st and a 29th have dug a hole that looks too big to climb out of. Making The Chase was the success story. The rest of this run is about damage control.
Bristol has a way of shaking things up. The next couple weeks will tell us who is actually built for this stretch and who is just hanging around.
