NASCAR Cup Series The Chase Power Rankings Ahead of Darlington

Here’s my first look at the 16 drivers in The Chase, ranked by momentum and actual chance to win the championship — not just where they sit in points right now. Sixteen drivers made the field, but if I’m being honest, I only see three who truly feel capable of winning it: Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Tyler Reddick. Here’s why the rest of the field stacks up the way it does…

1. Denny Hamlin – 2,100 points

This is still his championship to lose. Hamlin is good everywhere, he’s got the best car, the best crew, and the most complete team around him. When the pressure ramps up, he’s the one guy who looks built for it.

2. Ryan Blaney – 2,075 points

Arguably the best pure driver in the sport right now. Ford held him back early, and he’s still managed three wins in spite of it. The pit crew has been a weak spot all year, so the swap with Cindric’s group will be worth watching. If that gets fixed, Blaney is right there with Hamlin.

3. Tyler Reddick – 2,065 points

It was a cruel summer for Reddick, but a third-place finish at Daytona might be the reset he needed. The race-winning speed never really left — five wins still leads the series. They’ve had more than their share of bad luck. If that turns, he’s dangerous again.

4. Joey Logano – 2,035 points

He’s 65 points back and climbing a steep hill, but the recent form is hard to ignore. Two wins in the last seven races, championship experience, and some of his better tracks still ahead. Logano has a way of getting hot at the right time.

5. Chase Briscoe – 2,055 points

The speed is there. The wins just aren’t. Briscoe has looked like a guy who should have more trophies than he does. If he starts converting those strong runs, he jumps up this list in a hurry.

6. Ty Gibbs – 2,060 points

Two wins and a breakout season on paper. The consistency is real. The problem is he still doesn’t feel like the reason his team is winning races. This might be the year he learns what it takes by coming up short.

7. Christopher Bell – 2,050 points

Seven second-place finishes and zero wins is a brutal stat line. Like his teammate Briscoe, the speed is obvious. He just has to start turning those close calls into actual victories before the window closes.

8. Chase Elliott – 2,040 points

Four of his last five finishes have been 15th or worse. He’s the only Hendrick driver to win this year (twice), but whatever speed they found earlier seems to have disappeared. The new Chevy body has been a mess for the organization. Elliott still gives them their best shot.

9. Kyle Larson – 2,045 points

Defending champion. Third-most laps led this season. And somehow they still look lost when it’s time to close races. Right now they don’t look like a title threat, but if they flip the switch, you already know what Larson can do.

10. William Byron – 2,015 points

It’s genuinely confusing that he hasn’t had a better year. Hendrick and Chevy’s problems are well documented, but Byron doesn’t even have a second-place finish and has just one top-10 in his last three starts. He can win anywhere when the car is right. It just hasn’t been right.

11. Daniel Suárez – 2,025 points

Career year after getting let go by Trackhouse and landing at Spire. The Coke 600 win was huge. He doesn’t win enough to be a real title contender, but he’s earned the respect that comes with a strong season.

12. Carson Hocevar – 2,020 points

Breakout year that got him into The Chase and a win at Talladega. Lately it’s been rough — three finishes of 31st or worse in the last four races. This doesn’t feel like his year to make a real run.

13. Ryan Preece – 2,000 points

Walk-off win at Daytona for his first career victory to punch into The Chase is about as clutch as it gets. The No. 60 team has nothing to lose and finally has belief. They’re still 100 points back, so the climb is steep.

14. Chris Buescher – 2,030 points

No top-10 since July 12 at Atlanta and only 75 laps led all season. Buescher is stuck in neutral right now. He needs to find Victory Lane again before anyone puts him in a serious championship conversation.

15. Bubba Wallace – 2,010 points

Weird year next to what Reddick has done at 23XI. No wins while his teammate has five and part-timer Corey Heim has two. Bubba has looked decent lately on short tracks and intermediates, but he never got the hot streak Reddick had earlier. That gap is hard to make up.

16. Austin Cindric – 2,005 points

If you forgot he was even in The Chase, you’re probably not alone. Three straight top-12 finishes is quietly solid, but no one is confusing him for a championship contender at this point.

That’s the current order based on who actually feels dangerous when the lights get brightest. From Darlington to Homestead-Miami, every race is going to demand consistency and the ability to close. Right now, only a small group has shown they can do both. The rest are going to have to prove it in a hurry.